Burgos v Granada CF prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:01

Burgos 0–1 Granada CF BURGOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burgos win~~46%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.846

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.677

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burgos win at 46%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Burgos 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Burgos v Granada CF
14′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña · Burgos
23′⚽ GOAL · 25' Burgos 0–0 Granada CF · Pedro Alemañ Serna
24′Granada CF ahead on 25′ through Pedro Alemañ Serna. 0–0. 0–0 · 42–34–25
27′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Rubén Alcaraz · Granada CF
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Burgos 0–1 Granada CF · Pedro Alemañ Serna
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Pablo Galdames · Burgos
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' David Gonzalez · Burgos
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Granada CF · On: Owen Emeka · Off: Mario Jiménez Gambín
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Granada CF · On: Jorge Pascual · Off: Sergio Rodelas Pintor
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Burgos 1–1 Granada CF · Pedro Alemañ Serna
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Burgos 1–1 Granada CF · Alberto Flores López
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Burgos · On: Alberto Dadie · Off: Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Burgos · On: José Gragera · Off: Pablo Galdames
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Burgos · On: Jon Karrikaburu · Off: Curro
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Granada CF · On: Baïla Diallo · Off: Diego Varela Pampín
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Granada CF · On: Pau Casadesús · Off: Sergio López
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Burgos · On: Santiago Lencina · Off: Álex Forés
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Burgos · On: Victor Mollejo · Off: Unai Vencedor
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Granada CF · On: Chinaza Onouha · Off: José Manuel Arnáiz
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Baïla Diallo · Granada CF
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Jorge Pascual · Granada CF
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Burgos 1–1 Granada CF · Pedro Alemañ Serna
FTFULL TIME Burgos 0–1 Granada CF
FTBurgos 0–1 Granada CF · Burgos win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

Burgos win46%

Draw28%

Granada CF win26%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:15

VenueMunicipal El Plantio

RefereeSalvador Lax

Line-ups

Burgos

4-4-2

Granada CF

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Burgos

Granada CF

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Burgos	8	+3	14
9	Granada CF	8	0	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Burgos

4-4-2

13 A. Cantero

2 A. Lizancos

15 O. Luengo

8 G. Sierra

22 B. Martinez

14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

12 U. Vencedor

4 P. Galdames

19 J. Llabres

9 A. Fores

16 C. Sanchez

Coach · Sergio Francisco

Substitutes

1 · B. Iribarne

6 · S. Gonzalez

3 · I. Vilarrasa

23 · A. Dadie Izagirre

36 · I. Martinez

20 · J. Gragera

18 · S. del Cerro

10 · K. Appin

24 · S. Lencina

11 · V. Mollejo

7 · J. Karrikaburu

21 · F. Garcia

Granada CF

4-3-3

1 A. Flores

18 S. Lopez

30 Juanjo

5 M. Lama

16 D. Varela Pampin

8 P. Aleman

4 R. Alcaraz

6 G. Gumbau

7 S. Rodelas

11 J. M. Arnaiz

27 M. Jimenez Gambin

Coach · Pacheta

Substitutes

13 · R. Lizoain

23 · B. Gimber

22 · B. Diallo

3 · D. Hormigo

2 · P. Casadesus

35 · B. Dembele

33 · A. Garcia

32 · D. Rodriguez

17 · K. Bamba

10 · J. Pascual

36 · O. M. Chukwuemeka

19 · C. Onouha

Our number · burgos winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 15:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market37%

Us46%

~~Market~~37%

We make Burgos a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · burgos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burgos win	46%	37%	+9
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Granada CF win	26%	33%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Burgos or draw	74%	67%	+7
Burgos clean sheet	39%	–	–
Granada CF clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.6 9.1 4.4 1 13.3 13.0 5.9 2 9.2 8.6 4.0 3 4.2 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burgos down, Granada CF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,435 Segunda División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burgos at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Granada CF away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Burgos, 0.94 for Granada CF. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 15:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GRA 0–1 BUR · BUR 1–1 GRA · GRA 0–0 BUR · BUR 2–2 GRA

Form · last six in Segunda División

BURGOS

DDWWWL2–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

GRANADA CF

WLDLLW3–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Almeria	9	+11	21
3	Castellón	9	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	+1	16
7	Girona	8	+6	14
8	Burgos	8	+3	14
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Eldense	9	−1	11
13	Tenerife	8	−2	11
14	Las Palmas	9	−3	11
15	Leganes	9	−8	11
16	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
17	Valladolid	8	−3	9
18	Cordoba	9	−6	9
19	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1