Almeria v Leganes prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Almeria 3–0 Leganes ALMERIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almeria win~~57%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.272

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almeria win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Almeria 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–19
1′KICK-OFF Almeria v Leganes
3′Little has changed for our model: Almeria 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–19
12′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Leganes
45′HALF-TIME Almeria 0–0 Leganes
45′SECOND HALF Almeria 0–0 Leganes
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Almeria · On: Miguel De La Fuente · Off: Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Almeria 1–0 Leganes
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Almeria 1–0 Leganes · Miguel De La Fuente
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Almeria 2–0 Leganes · Miguel De La Fuente
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Almeria 2–0 Leganes · Miguel De La Fuente
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Almeria 3–0 Leganes · Miguel De La Fuente
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Almeria 3–0 Leganes · Daijiro Chirino
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leganes · On: Rubén Pulido · Off: Marvelous Antolín Garzón Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leganes · On: Yassine Kechta · Off: Miguel Atienza
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leganes · On: Enric Franquesa · Off: Álvaro Tejero
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leganes · On: Patrick Soko · Off: Ismael Gharbi
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Dani Rodriguez · Leganes
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Yassine Kechta · Leganes
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Enric Franquesa · Leganes
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Leganes · On: Álex Millán · Off: Álvaro Morata
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Almeria · On: Marcos Luna · Off: Daijiro Chirino
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Almeria · On: Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo · Off: Quim junyent
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Javier Muñoz Jiménez · Almeria
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Francisco Montero · Leganes
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Almeria · On: Jon Morcillo · Off: Brian Cipenga
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo · Almeria
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Almeria · On: Léo Baptistão · Off: Javier Muñoz Jiménez
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Álex Millán · Leganes
FTFULL TIME Almeria 3–0 Leganes
FTAlmeria 3–0 Leganes · Almeria win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Almeria win57%

Draw23%

Leganes win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:15

VenueUD Almería Stadium

RefereeGonzalo Romero Freixas

Line-ups

Almeria

4-2-3-1

Leganes

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Almeria

Leganes

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Almeria	8	+8	18
15	Leganes	8	−5	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Almeria

4-2-3-1

1 A. Fernandez

22 D. Chirino

21 Chumi

18 F. Bonini

3 A. Munoz

29 S. Dzodic

14 Javier Munoz

33 Q. Junyent

11 S. Arribas

17 B. Cipenga

9 Thalys

Coach · Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco

Substitutes

31 · A. Yaakobishvili

13 · F. Martinez

5 · J. Pulido

15 · L. Lelo

2 · M. Luna

10 · N. Melamed

26 · K. Kone

23 · A. Embarba

12 · Leo Baptistao

7 · J. Morcillo

24 · M. de la Fuente

Leganes

5-3-2

13 L. Zidane

11 N. Garcia

6 G. Aguilar Lopez

5 I. Miquel

2 Marvel

23 A. Tejero

10 Z. Buurmeester

20 M. Atienza

14 D. Rodriguez

17 I. Gharbi

21 A. Morata

Coach · Ruben Albes

Substitutes

1 · R. Fernandez

3 · J. Montero

15 · E. Franquesa

4 · R. Pulido

24 · A. Diawara

8 · Y. Kechta

9 · A. Millan

22 · Alex Sancris

16 · U. del Cura

18 · A. Campos

32 · Sule

19 · P. Soko

Our number · almeria winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

57% The market58%

Us57%

~~Market~~58%

We make Almeria a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · almeria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almeria win	57%	58%	−1
Draw	23%	24%	0
Leganes win	19%	18%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Almeria or draw	81%	82%	−1
Almeria clean sheet	39%	–	–
Leganes clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.7 5.6 2.9 1 11.0 11.0 5.1 2 10.3 9.7 4.6 3 6.3 5.9 2.8 4 2.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almeria down, Leganes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,431 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almeria at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Leganes away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Almeria, 0.95 for Leganes. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALM 2–1 LEG · LEG 0–3 ALM · LEG 2–2 ALM · ALM 1–0 LEG

Form · last six in Segunda División

ALMERIA

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

LEGANES

WDLWLL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Castellón	8	+12	20
3	Almeria	8	+8	18
4	Sabadell	9	+3	16
5	Girona	8	+6	14
6	Mallorca	8	+5	14
7	Burgos	8	+3	14
8	Sporting Gijon	8	0	13
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
12	Las Palmas	8	−1	11
13	Eldense	9	−1	11
14	Tenerife	8	−2	11
15	Leganes	8	−5	11
16	Valladolid	8	−3	9
17	Cordoba	9	−6	9
18	Real Sociedad II	9	−5	8
19	Cadiz	8	+1	7
20	FC Andorra	8	−3	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1