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AD Ceuta FC v Sabadell

AD Ceuta FC

1–2Full time

Sabadell

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell SABADELL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sabadell win~~36%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.542

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sabadell win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: AD Ceuta FC was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
1′KICK-OFF AD Ceuta FC v Sabadell
16′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Ton Ripoll · Sabadell
26′Sabadell ahead on 26′ through Ángel Baena. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Jordi Escobar · AD Ceuta FC
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sabadell
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Sabadell win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Sabadell win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was AD Ceuta FC win 11%)
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sabadell · Ángel Baena
29′We said AD Ceuta FC at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–69
35′SUBSTITUTION · 35' AD Ceuta FC · On: Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre · Off: Daniel Mas Soria Corrected
35′SUBSTITUTION · 35' AD Ceuta FC · On: Marino Illesca · Off: Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez Corrected
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Edgar Gonzalez · Sabadell
45′SECOND HALF AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Sabadell
46′⚽ GOAL · 50' AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Sabadell · Jordi Escobar
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Sabadell · Ángel Baena
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Sabadell · Jordi Escobar
53′🟥 RED CARD · 53' AD Ceuta FC
53′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Edgar Gonzalez · Sabadell
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sabadell · On: José Luis Català · Off: Alain Ribeiro Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AD Ceuta FC · On: Abraham Bueno Espinosa · Off: Alejandro Camacho Ramírez Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell · Jordi Escobar
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sabadell · On: Yanis Rahmani · Off: Ton Ripoll Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sabadell · On: Pere Pons · Off: Quadri Liameed Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 80' AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell · Ángel Baena (assist Pere Pons)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AD Ceuta FC · On: Alejandro Meléndez · Off: Carlos Hernández Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sabadell · On: Nikolay Obolskiy · Off: Joel Priego Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sabadell · On: Nikolay Obolskiy · Off: Joel Priego Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Eneko Aguilar · Sabadell
FTFULL TIME AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell
FTAD Ceuta FC 1–2 Sabadell · Sabadell win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AD Ceuta FC win36%

Draw28%

Sabadell win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:15

Venue · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Referee · Olatz Rivera Olmedo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC

3-4-2-1

13 G. Vallejo

4 A. Caparros

6 C. Hernandez

34 D. Mas

7 A. Camacho

15 J. Gonzalez

32 C. Okoro

3 Matos Jose

19 E. Sevikyan

8 K. Zalazar

9 J. Escobar

Coach · Jose Romero

Substitutes

1 · P. Lopez

18 · A. Petxa

5 · A. Lapena

14 · Y. Bodiger

20 · A. Melendez

17 · M. Mensah

10 · M. Illescas

26 · A. Betancourt

11 · C. Teguia

29 · O. Sadik

28 · A. Bueno

Sabadell

5-3-2

1 D. Fuoli

7 T. Ripoll

14 O. Sanz

6 E. Gonzalez

5 Bonaldo

4 M. Codina

22 Q. Liameed

20 A. Orriols Cerarols

23 J. Priego

21 A. Ribeiro

10 A. Baena Perez

Coach · Ferran Costa

Substitutes

13 · J. Ortega

25 · M. V. Vidal Girona

27 · J. Catala

8 · P. Pons

19 · Y. Rahmani

24 · E. Aguilar Elizalde

9 · N. Obolskiy

12 · G. Valles

33 · J. Utges

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC

3-4-2-1

13 G. Vallejo

4 A. Caparros

6 C. Hernandez

34 D. Mas

7 A. Camacho

15 J. Gonzalez

32 C. Okoro

3 Matos Jose

19 E. Sevikyan

8 K. Zalazar

9 J. Escobar

Coach · Jose Romero

Substitutes

1 · P. Lopez

18 · A. Petxa

5 · A. Lapena

14 · Y. Bodiger

20 · A. Melendez

17 · M. Mensah

10 · M. Illescas

26 · A. Betancourt

11 · C. Teguia

29 · O. Sadik

28 · A. Bueno

Sabadell

5-3-2

1 D. Fuoli

7 T. Ripoll

14 O. Sanz

6 E. Gonzalez

5 Bonaldo

4 M. Codina

22 Q. Liameed

20 A. Orriols Cerarols

23 J. Priego

21 A. Ribeiro

10 A. Baena Perez

Coach · Ferran Costa

Substitutes

13 · J. Ortega

25 · M. V. Vidal Girona

27 · J. Catala

8 · P. Pons

19 · Y. Rahmani

24 · E. Aguilar Elizalde

9 · N. Obolskiy

12 · G. Valles

33 · J. Utges

Our number · sabadell winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

36% The market40%

Us36%

~~Market~~40%

We make Sabadell a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sabadell win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AD Ceuta FC win	36%	30%	+6
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Sabadell win	36%	40%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	41%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	67%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	23%	+1
AD Ceuta FC or draw	64%	60%	+4
AD Ceuta FC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sabadell clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.1 10.2 6.5 2.7 1 10.0 13.1 7.9 3.3 2 6.4 7.8 4.8 2.0 3 2.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AD Ceuta FC down, Sabadell across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,428 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

AD Ceuta FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sabadell away: 0.25 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for AD Ceuta FC, 1.24 for Sabadell. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División

AD CEUTA FC

LLLDWD0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

SABADELL

WWLWDD1–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eibar	8	+11	21
2	Castellón	8	+12	20
3	Almeria	8	+8	18
4	Girona	8	+6	14
5	Mallorca	8	+5	14
6	Burgos	8	+3	14
7	Sabadell	8	+2	13
8	Sporting Gijon	8	0	13
9	Granada CF	8	0	11
10	Oviedo	8	0	11
11	Las Palmas	8	−1	11
12	Tenerife	8	−2	11
13	Leganes	8	−5	11
14	Valladolid	8	−3	9
15	Cordoba	8	−5	9
16	Real Sociedad II	8	−2	8
17	Eldense	8	−2	8
18	Celta de Vigo II	8	−4	8
19	Cadiz	8	+1	7
20	FC Andorra	8	−3	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	8	−11	5
22	Albacete	8	−10	1