AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Oviedo OVIEDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oviedo win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.528

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oviedo win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Oviedo was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre · AD Ceuta FC
23′We published Oviedo at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Marino Illesca · AD Ceuta FC
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Oviedo
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Oviedo win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
24′23′: Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva on the scoresheet for Oviedo, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Oviedo win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' David Jimenez · Oviedo
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jordi Escobar · AD Ceuta FC
45′SECOND HALF AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Oviedo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AD Ceuta FC · On: Carlos Redruello Nimo · Off: Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre Corrected
48′We published Oviedo at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
48′HALF-TIME AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Oviedo
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' José Juan Romero Gil · AD Ceuta FC
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Oviedo · On: José Luis Morales · Off: Víctor García Mingo Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Oviedo · On: Nacho Vidal · Off: David Jimenez Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Oviedo · On: Pablo Saenz · Off: Alberto Reina Corrected
60′We published Oviedo at 41%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Oviedo
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Oviedo win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
61′Oviedo ahead on 61′ through Carlos Dominguez. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' AD Ceuta FC · On: Omar Sadik · Off: Edgar Sevikyan Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' AD Ceuta FC · On: Alejandro Camacho Ramírez · Off: Kialy Abdoul Kone Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Oviedo · On: Jacobo González · Off: Mikel Goti Lopez Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AD Ceuta FC · On: Abraham Bueno Espinosa · Off: José Matos Corrected
82′We published Oviedo at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′We published Oviedo at 41%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–8–91
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Oviedo
84′Alejandro Camacho Ramírez scores for AD Ceuta FC on 83′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–93
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Oviedo · On: Daniel Villahermosa · Off: Enzo Pérez Miranda Corrected
86′21 shots for AD Ceuta FC, 16 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–94
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Kuki Zalazar · AD Ceuta FC
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Aritz Aldasoro · Oviedo
FTFULL TIME AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Oviedo
FTAD Ceuta FC 1–2 Oviedo · Oviedo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oviedo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AD Ceuta FC 32%, draw 28%, Oviedo 41%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on AD Ceuta FC v OviedoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AD Ceuta FC win32%

Draw28%

Oviedo win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEstadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

RefereeJose Guzman

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC

4-2-3-1

Oviedo

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AD Ceuta FC

Oviedo

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

Last match: 12 Oct · the Spanish Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Lopez

18 A. Petxa

6 C. Hernandez

4 A. Caparros

3 Matos Jose

32 C. Okoro

10 M. Illescas

19 E. Sevikyan

8 K. Zalazar

22 K. Kone

9 J. Escobar

Coach · Jose Romero

Substitutes

13 · G. Vallejo

16 · C. Redruello Nimo

5 · A. Lapena

15 · J. Gonzalez

14 · Y. Bodiger

7 · A. Camacho

20 · A. Melendez

17 · M. Mensah

26 · A. Betancourt

11 · C. Teguia

29 · O. Sadik

28 · A. Bueno

Oviedo

4-4-2

13 A. Escandell

21 D. Jimenez

12 D. Calvo

23 C. Dominguez

15 S. Rodriguez

8 M. Goti Lopez

16 A. Aldasoro

5 Y. Lachhab

32 E. Perez

18 V. Mingo

10 A. Reina

Coach · Julian Calero

Substitutes

27 · S. Franganillo

1 · M. Narvaez

4 · D. Costas

22 · N. Vidal

30 · Marco Esteban

11 · J. Gonzalez

19 · B. Domingues

6 · D. Villahermosa

28 · D. Menendez

20 · P. Saenz

25 · J. Morales

Our number · oviedo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:46 · locked at kick-off

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Oviedo a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo~~1.13 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 14~~21 v 9

~~The market · Oviedo win~~40% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oviedo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. The market has gone from 41% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AD Ceuta FC win	32%	32%	0
Draw	28%	28%	0
Oviedo win	41%	40%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
AD Ceuta FC or draw	59%	60%	−1
AD Ceuta FC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Oviedo clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.2 11.1 7.5 3.3 1 9.5 13.0 8.3 3.7 2 5.5 7.1 4.7 2.1 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AD Ceuta FC down, Oviedo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,444 Segunda División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

AD Ceuta FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Oviedo away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for AD Ceuta FC, 1.32 for Oviedo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 5 Sept

AD CEUTA FC

LLDWDL0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

OVIEDO

DWLWLW0–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Almeria	10	+13	24
2	Castellón	10	+14	23
3	Eibar	10	+9	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	+2	19
5	Mallorca	10	+7	18
6	Sabadell	9	+3	16
7	Girona	9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	−2	12
13	Cordoba	10	−5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	−1	11
15	Eldense	9	−1	11
16	Las Palmas	10	−6	11
17	Leganes	10	−9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	−2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	10	−7	8
20	Cadiz	9	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	−12	5
22	Albacete	10	−16	1