SS Reyes v Calvo Sotelo prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

SS Reyes 2–1 Calvo Sotelo SS REYES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SS Reyes win~~66%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.179

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.228

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SS Reyes win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SS Reyes 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–22–12
1′KICK-OFF SS Reyes v Calvo Sotelo
10′SS Reyes find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' SS Reyes 1–0 Calvo Sotelo
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' SS Reyes win: 66% at kick-off, 88% now
11′We said SS Reyes at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
14′SS Reyes ahead on 9′ through M. Telis. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
45′HALF-TIME SS Reyes 1–0 Calvo Sotelo
46′SECOND HALF SS Reyes 1–0 Calvo Sotelo
63′We said SS Reyes at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
73′A goal for SS Reyes on 73′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–0–0
73′We said SS Reyes at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' SS Reyes 2–0 Calvo Sotelo
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' SS Reyes win: 66% at kick-off, 99% now
74′We said SS Reyes at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′Calvo Sotelo score on 86′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
87′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' SS Reyes 2–1 Calvo Sotelo
90′SS Reyes find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' SS Reyes 3–1 Calvo Sotelo
92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+2' SS Reyes
FTFULL TIME SS Reyes 2–1 Calvo Sotelo
FTSS Reyes 2–1 Calvo Sotelo · SS Reyes win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SS Reyes are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SS Reyes 66%, draw 22%, Calvo Sotelo 12%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on SS Reyes v Calvo SoteloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SS Reyes win66%

Draw22%

Calvo Sotelo win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SS Reyes

Calvo Sotelo

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ss reyes winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market61%

Us66%

~~Market~~61%

We make SS Reyes a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SS Reyes v Calvo Sotelo~~1.92 – 0.65

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~7 v 15

~~The market · SS Reyes win~~61% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SS Reyes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SS Reyes win	66%	61%	+5
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Calvo Sotelo win	12%	14%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
Both teams to score	40%	43%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	0
SS Reyes or draw	88%	86%	+2
SS Reyes clean sheet	53%	–	–
Calvo Sotelo clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 8.9 4.7 1 14.3 9.9 3.1 2 13.6 8.6 2.8 3 8.7 5.4 4 4.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SS Reyes down, Calvo Sotelo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

SS Reyes at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Calvo Sotelo away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for SS Reyes, 0.65 for Calvo Sotelo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept

SS REYES

WWDLWL3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–3

CALVO SOTELO

LDLWLD0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
2	Conquense	6	+7	13
3	Numancia	6	+5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	+3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	+7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	+1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5
16	Albacete II	6	−12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4
18	Getafe II	6	−5	3