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Salamanca UDS v SS Reyes

Salamanca UDS

3–2Full time

SS Reyes

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Salamanca UDS 3–2 SS Reyes SS REYES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SS Reyes win~~37%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.662

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.593

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SS Reyes win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SS Reyes 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
9′Little has changed for our model: SS Reyes 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 33–30–36
22′A goal for Salamanca UDS on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–12
30′24′ and it is 2–0: L. Oscar on the scoresheet for Salamanca UDS. 2–0 · 89–8–2
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' SS Reyes win: 37% at kick-off, 2% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Salamanca UDS win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was SS Reyes win 2%)
45′HALF-TIME Salamanca UDS 2–0 SS Reyes
46′SECOND HALF Salamanca UDS 2–0 SS Reyes
47′⚽ GOAL · 20' Salamanca UDS 2–0 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
47′⚽ GOAL · 24' Salamanca UDS 2–0 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
50′⚽ GOAL · 20' Salamanca UDS 2–0 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
50′⚽ GOAL · 24' Salamanca UDS 2–0 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
51′⚽ GOAL · 20' Salamanca UDS 2–1 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
51′⚽ GOAL · 24' Salamanca UDS 2–1 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Salamanca UDS 2–1 SS Reyes
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes
55′⚽ GOAL · 20' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
55′⚽ GOAL · 24' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
55′⚽ GOAL · 49' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes · Garci
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes
68′⚽ GOAL · 20' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
68′⚽ GOAL · 24' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes · L. Oscar
68′⚽ GOAL · 49' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes · Garci
68′⚽ GOAL · 52' Salamanca UDS 2–2 SS Reyes · P. Rojo
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Salamanca UDS 3–2 SS Reyes
FTFULL TIME Salamanca UDS 3–2 SS Reyes
FTSalamanca UDS 3–2 SS Reyes · SS Reyes win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Salamanca UDS win34%

Draw29%

SS Reyes win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ss reyes winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

37% The market33%

Us37%

~~Market~~33%

We make SS Reyes a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salamanca UDS win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	29%	29%	0
SS Reyes win	37%	33%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Salamanca UDS or draw	63%	67%	−4
Salamanca UDS clean sheet	31%	–	–
SS Reyes clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.9 11.4 7.0 2.8 1 10.8 13.4 7.6 3.0 2 6.3 7.2 4.2 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salamanca UDS down, SS Reyes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Salamanca UDS at home: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). SS Reyes away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Salamanca UDS, 1.18 for SS Reyes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

SALAMANCA UDS

WWLWL3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

SS REYES

WWWDLW3–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	A Madrid III	5	+3	12
2	Numancia	5	+5	11
3	SS Reyes	5	+4	10
4	Conquense	5	+3	10
5	Real Valladolid II	5	+7	9
6	Salamanca UDS	5	+2	9
7	CF Talavera	5	+2	8
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	+1	7
9	Navalcarnero	5	0	7
10	RSD Alcalá	5	0	6
11	Real Ávila	5	−3	6
12	Guadalajara	5	−1	5
13	Atlético Paso	5	−2	5
14	Albacete II	5	−8	5
15	Atlético Tordesillas	5	−2	4
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	−6	4
17	Getafe II	5	−2	3
18	Real Madrid III	5	−3	3