Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 › Salamanca UDS v Navalcarnero

Salamanca UDS v Navalcarnero

Salamanca UDS

1–1Full time

Navalcarnero

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Salamanca UDS 1–1 Navalcarnero SALAMANCA UDS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Salamanca UDS win~~47%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Salamanca UDS win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Salamanca UDS was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Salamanca UDS v Navalcarnero
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Salamanca UDS win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Salamanca UDS 0–0 Navalcarnero
46′SECOND HALF Salamanca UDS 0–0 Navalcarnero
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Salamanca UDS win 36%)
49′We said Salamanca UDS at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–43–22
51′We said Salamanca UDS at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–21
52′Salamanca UDS score on 52′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Salamanca UDS 1–0 Navalcarnero
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Salamanca UDS win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Salamanca UDS win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
53′We published Salamanca UDS at 47%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Salamanca UDS win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
56′We published Salamanca UDS at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
57′51′: A. Alsua on the scoresheet for Salamanca UDS, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
70′We published Salamanca UDS at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Salamanca UDS win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
80′We published Salamanca UDS at 47%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
86′We published Salamanca UDS at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Salamanca UDS win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
92′Navalcarnero find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 3–95–2
92′We said Salamanca UDS at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–95–2
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Salamanca UDS 1–1 Navalcarnero
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Salamanca UDS win: 47% at kick-off, 3% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Salamanca UDS win 3%)
FTFULL TIME Salamanca UDS 1–1 Navalcarnero
FTSalamanca UDS 1–1 Navalcarnero · Salamanca UDS win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Salamanca UDS are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salamanca UDS 47%, draw 27%, Navalcarnero 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Salamanca UDS v NavalcarneroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Salamanca UDS win47%

Draw27%

Navalcarnero win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salamanca UDS

Navalcarnero

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Federacion

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salamanca uds winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Salamanca UDS a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salamanca UDS v Navalcarnero~~1.50 – 1.04

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~5 v 10

~~The market · Salamanca UDS win~~46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Salamanca UDS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salamanca UDS win	47%	46%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Navalcarnero win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Salamanca UDS or draw	74%	75%	−1
Salamanca UDS clean sheet	36%	–	–
Navalcarnero clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.9 7.6 4.3 1 11.2 12.8 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 9.0 4.6 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salamanca UDS down, Navalcarnero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salamanca UDS at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Navalcarnero away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Salamanca UDS, 1.04 for Navalcarnero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAL 1–0 NAV · NAV 2–0 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept

SALAMANCA UDS

WWLWLW3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 3–2

NAVALCARNERO

LWDLWD0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
2	Real Valladolid II	7	+8	13
3	Conquense	6	+7	13
4	Numancia	6	+5	12
5	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
6	CF Talavera	6	+3	11
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	+1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
12	Real Ávila	7	−4	7
13	Albacete II	7	−12	6
14	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5
15	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5
16	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4
18	Getafe II	7	−5	4