RSD Alcalá v Real Madrid III prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

RSD Alcalá 0–0 Real Madrid III RSD ALCALÁ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RSD Alcalá win~~47%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.778

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RSD Alcalá win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: RSD Alcalá 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
1′KICK-OFF RSD Alcalá v Real Madrid III
5′A goal for RSD Alcalá on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
5′We said RSD Alcalá at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' RSD Alcalá 1–0 Real Madrid III
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' RSD Alcalá win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
6′GOAL DISALLOWED · 6' RSD Alcalá
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' RSD Alcalá win: 47% at kick-off, 46% now
6′PENALTY MISSED · 6' RSD Alcalá
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' RSD Alcalá win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was RSD Alcalá win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME RSD Alcalá 0–0 Real Madrid III
46′SECOND HALF RSD Alcalá 0–0 Real Madrid III
47′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–44–20
49′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–20
60′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' RSD Alcalá win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
67′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
74′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' RSD Alcalá win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
84′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–5
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' RSD Alcalá win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said RSD Alcalá at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME RSD Alcalá 0–0 Real Madrid III
FTRSD Alcalá 0–0 Real Madrid III · RSD Alcalá win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RSD Alcalá are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RSD Alcalá 47%, draw 29%, Real Madrid III 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on RSD Alcalá v Real Madrid IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

RSD Alcalá win47%

Draw29%

Real Madrid III win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RSD Alcalá

Real Madrid III

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rsd alcalá winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make RSD Alcalá a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RSD Alcalá v Real Madrid III~~1.38 – 0.90

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~11 v 17

~~The market · RSD Alcalá win~~46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RSD Alcalá win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RSD Alcalá win	47%	46%	+1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Real Madrid III win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
RSD Alcalá or draw	76%	75%	+1
RSD Alcalá clean sheet	41%	–	–
Real Madrid III clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.3 8.6 4.2 1 13.4 13.1 5.6 2 9.7 8.5 3.8 3 4.5 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RSD Alcalá down, Real Madrid III across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RSD Alcalá at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Madrid III away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for RSD Alcalá, 0.90 for Real Madrid III. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–2 RSD · RSD 1–0 REA · RSD 1–2 REA · REA 1–0 RSD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept

RSD ALCALÁ

WLWLLD3–0 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–0

REAL MADRID III

DDLLDD0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
2	Conquense	6	+7	13
3	Numancia	6	+5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	+3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	+7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	+1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5
16	Albacete II	6	−12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4
18	Getafe II	6	−5	3