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Real Valladolid II v Real Ávila

Real Valladolid II

2–1Full time

Real Ávila

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

Real Valladolid II 2–1 Real Ávila REAL VALLADOLID II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Valladolid II win~~53%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.339

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.504

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Valladolid II win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Valladolid II was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–21
1′KICK-OFF Real Valladolid II v Real Ávila
16′A goal for Real Ávila on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–26–51
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Real Valladolid II 0–1 Real Ávila
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 24% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Real Ávila win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Real Valladolid II win 24%)
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Real Ávila
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 49% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Real Valladolid II win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Real Ávila win 21%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
43′We said Real Valladolid II at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
45′HALF-TIME Real Valladolid II 0–0 Real Ávila
46′SECOND HALF Real Valladolid II 0–0 Real Ávila
48′We said Real Valladolid II at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Real Valladolid II win 38%)
51′A goal for Real Valladolid II on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–3
51′We published Real Valladolid II at 53%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–3
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Real Valladolid II 1–0 Real Ávila
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Real Valladolid II win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 15%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
65′We published Real Valladolid II at 53%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
67′PENALTY MISSED · 66' Real Ávila
72′PENALTY MISSED · 63' A. Molina · Real Ávila
77′We published Real Valladolid II at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′Real Ávila score on 79′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 15–77–8
80′We said Real Valladolid II at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–77–8
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Real Valladolid II 1–1 Real Ávila
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 15% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Real Valladolid II win 15%)
81′We said Real Valladolid II at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–8
81′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 14–79–8
81′Real Valladolid II find the net on 81′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Real Valladolid II 2–1 Real Ávila
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 92% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Real Valladolid II win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–7–0
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Real Valladolid II win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
84′We published Real Valladolid II at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Real Valladolid II 2–1 Real Ávila
FTReal Valladolid II 2–1 Real Ávila · Real Valladolid II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Valladolid II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Valladolid II 53%, draw 26%, Real Ávila 21%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Real Valladolid II v Real ÁvilaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Valladolid II win53%

Draw26%

Real Ávila win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Valladolid II

Real Ávila

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Real Valladolid II	6	+7	10
12	Real Ávila	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real valladolid ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market42%

Us53%

~~Market~~42%

We make Real Valladolid II a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Valladolid II v Real Ávila~~1.61 – 0.93

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~6 v 12

~~The market · Real Valladolid II win~~42% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Valladolid II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Valladolid II win	53%	42%	+11
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Real Ávila win	21%	30%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	59%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Real Valladolid II or draw	79%	70%	+9
Real Valladolid II clean sheet	40%	–	–
Real Ávila clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.8 6.8 3.5 1 12.1 12.2 5.4 2 10.1 9.2 4.3 3 5.5 5.0 2.3 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Valladolid II down, Real Ávila across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Valladolid II at home: 3.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Real Ávila away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Real Valladolid II, 0.93 for Real Ávila. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VAL 7–2 AVI · AVI 2–2 VAL · VAL 2–1 AVI · AVI 2–3 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

REAL VALLADOLID II

WLWLWD1–0 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

REAL ÁVILA

LLWWLD1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
2	Conquense	6	+7	13
3	Numancia	6	+5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	+3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	+7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	+1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5
16	Albacete II	6	−12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4
18	Getafe II	6	−5	3