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Numancia v Navalcarnero
NumanciaNavalcarneroSegunda División RFEF - Group 5 · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Numancia are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Numancia 50%, draw 29%, Navalcarnero 21%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Numancia win50%Navalcarnero win21%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00
RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8
Match timeline
All events
NumanciaMINNavalcarneroEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Numancia
Navalcarnero
Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Numancia | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 7 | 0 | 9 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Numancia a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | +2 |
| Navalcarnero win | 21% | 19% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Numancia or draw | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Numancia clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
| Navalcarnero clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept
NUMANCIA
NAVALCARNERO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Conquense | 7 | +7 | 14 |
| 2 |  A Madrid III | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 3 |  Real Valladolid II | 7 | +8 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 |  SS Reyes | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 |  Salamanca UDS | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 |  CF Talavera | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 |  Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | Navalcarnero | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 |  Atlético Tordesillas | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  RSD Alcalá | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Guadalajara | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 13 |  Real Ávila | 7 | −4 | 7 |
| 14 |  Atlético Paso | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Albacete II | 7 | −12 | 6 |
| 16 |  Real Madrid III | 7 | −3 | 5 |
| 17 |  Calvo Sotelo | 7 | −7 | 5 |
| 18 |  Getafe II | 7 | −5 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.