Navalcarnero v A Madrid III prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Navalcarnero 1–1 A Madrid III NAVALCARNERO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Navalcarnero win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Navalcarnero win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Navalcarnero was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–29
2′KICK-OFF Navalcarnero v A Madrid III
3′Much as we predicted: Navalcarnero was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Navalcarnero 0–1 A Madrid III
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Navalcarnero 0–1 A Madrid III
45′HALF-TIME Navalcarnero 0–1 A Madrid III
45′⚽ GOAL · 9' Navalcarnero 0–1 A Madrid III · G. Gross
46′SECOND HALF Navalcarnero 0–1 A Madrid III
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Navalcarnero 1–1 A Madrid III
FTFULL TIME Navalcarnero 1–1 A Madrid III
FTNavalcarnero 1–1 A Madrid III · Navalcarnero win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Navalcarnero win44%

Draw27%

A Madrid III win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Navalcarnero

A Madrid III

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	A Madrid III	5	+3	12
9	Navalcarnero	5	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · navalcarnero winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Navalcarnero a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Navalcarnero win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
A Madrid III win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Navalcarnero or draw	72%	–	–
Navalcarnero clean sheet	34%	–	–
A Madrid III clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.9 8.4 4.8 1 11.2 12.8 6.7 2.4 2 8.2 8.7 4.7 3 4.0 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Navalcarnero down, A Madrid III across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Navalcarnero at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). A Madrid III away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Navalcarnero, 1.08 for A Madrid III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

NAVALCARNERO

WLWDLW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1

A MADRID III

WLWWW2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
2	A Madrid III	5	+3	12
3	Numancia	5	+5	11
4	Conquense	5	+3	10
5	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
6	Real Valladolid II	5	+7	9
7	CF Talavera	5	+2	8
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	+1	7
9	Navalcarnero	5	0	7
10	RSD Alcalá	5	0	6
11	Real Ávila	5	−3	6
12	Guadalajara	5	−1	5
13	Atlético Paso	5	−2	5
14	Albacete II	5	−8	5
15	Atlético Tordesillas	5	−2	4
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	−6	4
17	Getafe II	5	−2	3
18	Real Madrid III	5	−3	3