Guadalajara v Real Valladolid II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GuadalajaraDrawReal Valladolid II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Guadalajara 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guadalajara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guadalajara 49%, draw 25%, Real Valladolid II 26%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Guadalajara v Real Valladolid IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Guadalajara win49%

Draw25%

Real Valladolid II win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guadalajara

Real Valladolid II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Valladolid II	7	+8	13
12	Guadalajara	7	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalajara winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market51%

Us49%

~~Market~~51%

We make Guadalajara a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guadalajara v Real Valladolid II~~1.71 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~12 v 4

~~The market · Guadalajara win~~51% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guadalajara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadalajara win	49%	51%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Real Valladolid II win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Guadalajara or draw	74%	76%	−2
Guadalajara clean sheet	31%	–	–
Real Valladolid II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 6.0 4.0 1 8.9 11.8 6.5 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.4 2.1 3 4.6 5.3 3.1 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadalajara down, Real Valladolid II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,597 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Guadalajara at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Valladolid II away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Guadalajara, 1.17 for Real Valladolid II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept

GUADALAJARA

WLDDWL2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–3

REAL VALLADOLID II

LWLWDW0–1 · 6–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SS Reyes	8	+5	16
2	Conquense	7	+7	14
3	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
4	Real Valladolid II	7	+8	13
5	Numancia	8	+4	13
6	Salamanca UDS	7	+3	13
7	CF Talavera	7	+3	12
8	Navalcarnero	8	+1	12
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	8	+1	10
10	Atlético Tordesillas	8	+1	9
11	Atlético Paso	8	0	9
12	Guadalajara	7	−1	8
13	RSD Alcalá	8	−1	8
14	Real Ávila	8	−7	7
15	Albacete II	7	−12	6
16	Real Madrid III	7	−3	5
17	Calvo Sotelo	7	−7	5
18	Getafe II	7	−5	4