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Guadalajara v Getafe II

Guadalajara

4–1Full time

Getafe II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Guadalajara 4–1 Getafe II GUADALAJARA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guadalajara win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.428

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.420

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guadalajara win at 47%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Guadalajara 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–28
4′Little has changed for our model: Guadalajara 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–28
44′Getafe II find the net on 43′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
45′Getafe II find the net on 43′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
49′We said Guadalajara at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
53′A goal for Guadalajara on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–44–23
73′Guadalajara find the net on 72′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–1–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Guadalajara win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 1%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Guadalajara win 34%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Guadalajara win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 1%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Guadalajara win 34%)
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Guadalajara 4–1 Getafe II
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Guadalajara win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 1%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Guadalajara win 34%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Guadalajara win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 1%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Guadalajara win 34%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 34% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Guadalajara win 34%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Guadalajara win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Guadalajara win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 1%)
89′A goal for Guadalajara on 85′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Guadalajara 4–1 Getafe II
FTGuadalajara 4–1 Getafe II · Guadalajara win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Guadalajara win47%

Draw26%

Getafe II win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Guadalajara

Getafe II

4Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Guadalajara	5	−1	5
17	Getafe II	5	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalajara winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make Guadalajara a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guadalajara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadalajara win	47%	47%	−1
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Getafe II win	28%	25%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Guadalajara or draw	72%	75%	−2
Guadalajara clean sheet	33%	–	–
Getafe II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.5 7.3 4.4 1 10.1 12.1 6.6 2.6 2 8.1 8.9 5.1 3 4.3 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadalajara down, Getafe II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guadalajara at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Getafe II away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Guadalajara, 1.14 for Getafe II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GUA 2–1 GET · GET 2–2 GUA · GET 2–0 GUA · GUA 1–0 GET

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

GUADALAJARA

LLWLDD2–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

GETAFE II

LDLDLD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
2	A Madrid III	5	+3	12
3	Numancia	5	+5	11
4	Conquense	5	+3	10
5	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
6	Real Valladolid II	5	+7	9
7	CF Talavera	5	+2	8
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	+1	7
9	Navalcarnero	5	0	7
10	RSD Alcalá	5	0	6
11	Real Ávila	5	−3	6
12	Guadalajara	5	−1	5
13	Atlético Paso	5	−2	5
14	Albacete II	5	−8	5
15	Atlético Tordesillas	5	−2	4
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	−6	4
17	Getafe II	5	−2	3
18	Real Madrid III	5	−3	3