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Gimnástica Segoviana v Real Valladolid II

Gimnástica Segoviana

1–1Full time

Real Valladolid II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio La Albuera

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Gimnástica Segoviana 1–1 Real Valladolid II GIMNÁSTICA SEGOVIANA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gimnástica Segoviana win~~49%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.887

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gimnástica Segoviana win at 49%.
2′Much as we predicted: Gimnástica Segoviana was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
3′Much as we predicted: Gimnástica Segoviana was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
23′16′ and it is 0–0: Gimnástica Segoviana have scored. 0–0 · 46–28–26
43′Real Valladolid II find the net on 41′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–35–24
45′Real Valladolid II find the net on 41′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–36–24
50′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 38–39–23
70′We said Gimnástica Segoviana at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–57–17
86′We said Gimnástica Segoviana at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–88–5
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 26% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 26% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 26% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 26% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Gimnástica Segoviana win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
FTFULL TIME Gimnástica Segoviana 1–1 Real Valladolid II
FTGimnástica Segoviana 1–1 Real Valladolid II · Gimnástica Segoviana win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gimnástica Segoviana win49%

Draw24%

Real Valladolid II win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueEstadio La Albuera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gimnástica Segoviana

Real Valladolid II

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Real Valladolid II	5	+7	9
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gimnástica segoviana winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market44%

Us49%

~~Market~~44%

We make Gimnástica Segoviana a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gimnástica segoviana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gimnástica Segoviana win	49%	44%	+4
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Real Valladolid II win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	51%	+6
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	30%	+5
Gimnástica Segoviana or draw	73%	72%	+1
Gimnástica Segoviana clean sheet	30%	–	–
Real Valladolid II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.0 6.1 4.0 1 8.7 11.1 6.5 2.7 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.3 3 4.5 5.3 3.2 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gimnástica Segoviana down, Real Valladolid II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Gimnástica Segoviana at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Real Valladolid II away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Gimnástica Segoviana, 1.22 for Real Valladolid II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

GIMNÁSTICA SEGOVIANA

WWLLWD1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 3–3

REAL VALLADOLID II

WLWLW1–0 · 0–1 · 6–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
2	A Madrid III	5	+3	12
3	Numancia	5	+5	11
4	Conquense	5	+3	10
5	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
6	Real Valladolid II	5	+7	9
7	CF Talavera	5	+2	8
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	+1	7
9	Navalcarnero	5	0	7
10	RSD Alcalá	5	0	6
11	Real Ávila	5	−3	6
12	Guadalajara	5	−1	5
13	Atlético Paso	5	−2	5
14	Albacete II	5	−8	5
15	Atlético Tordesillas	5	−2	4
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	−6	4
17	Getafe II	5	−2	3
18	Real Madrid III	5	−3	3