Conquense v Atlético Paso prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Conquense 2–2 Atlético Paso CONQUENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Conquense win~~59%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.936

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.969

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Conquense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Conquense 59%, draw 25%, Atlético Paso 16%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Conquense v Atlético PasoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Conquense win59%

Draw25%

Atlético Paso win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Conquense

Atlético Paso

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Conquense	6	+7	13
14	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · conquense winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market61%

Us59%

~~Market~~61%

We make Conquense a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Conquense v Atlético Paso~~1.70 – 0.73

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 5~~2 v 14

~~The market · Conquense win~~61% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Conquense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Conquense win	59%	61%	−2
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Atlético Paso win	16%	14%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	42%	42%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−2
Conquense or draw	84%	86%	−2
Conquense clean sheet	48%	–	–
Atlético Paso clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 10.0 6.1 2.5 1 14.3 11.4 4.0 2 12.4 8.8 3.3 3 7.0 5.0 4 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Conquense down, Atlético Paso across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Conquense at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Paso away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Conquense, 0.73 for Atlético Paso. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 CON · CON 3–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept

CONQUENSE

DWWWLW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 4–0

ATLÉTICO PASO

LDLDWL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
2	Conquense	6	+7	13
3	Numancia	6	+5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	+3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	+7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	+1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5
16	Albacete II	6	−12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4
18	Getafe II	6	−5	3