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CF Talavera v Atlético Paso

CF Talavera

2–1Full time

Atlético Paso

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio El Prado

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

CF Talavera 2–1 Atlético Paso CF TALAVERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CF Talavera win~~59%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.261

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.334

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CF Talavera win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: CF Talavera was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–25–15
10′Much as we predicted: CF Talavera was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–27–16
34′CF Talavera find the net on 30′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 85% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 85% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' CF Talavera 1–1 Atlético Paso
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 85% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 85% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
41′A goal for Atlético Paso on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 46–39–15
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 85% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
44′A goal for Atlético Paso on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–41–15
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME CF Talavera 1–1 Atlético Paso
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CF Talavera win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
46′SECOND HALF CF Talavera 1–1 Atlético Paso
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' CF Talavera 2–1 Atlético Paso
71′⚽ GOAL · 31' CF Talavera 2–1 Atlético Paso · Sergio Benito
71′⚽ GOAL · 37' CF Talavera 2–1 Atlético Paso · C. Leon
71′⚽ GOAL · 56' CF Talavera 2–1 Atlético Paso
FTFULL TIME CF Talavera 2–1 Atlético Paso
FTCF Talavera 2–1 Atlético Paso · CF Talavera win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CF Talavera win59%

Draw26%

Atlético Paso win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

VenueEstadio El Prado

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CF Talavera

Atlético Paso

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	CF Talavera	5	+2	8
13	Atlético Paso	5	−2	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cf talavera winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

59% The market53%

Us59%

~~Market~~53%

We make CF Talavera a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cf talavera win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CF Talavera win	59%	53%	+6
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Atlético Paso win	16%	19%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	39%	46%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
CF Talavera or draw	84%	81%	+3
CF Talavera clean sheet	51%	–	–
Atlético Paso clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 11.3 6.7 2.5 1 15.9 11.2 3.7 2 12.8 8.4 2.9 3 6.9 4.5 4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CF Talavera down, Atlético Paso across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CF Talavera at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Paso away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for CF Talavera, 0.67 for Atlético Paso. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CFT 4–0 ATL · ATL 1–2 CFT · ATL 1–0 CFT · CFT 0–0 ATL

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

CF TALAVERA

WLDDWW1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

ATLÉTICO PASO

DLDLDW2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
2	A Madrid III	5	+3	12
3	Numancia	5	+5	11
4	Conquense	5	+3	10
5	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
6	Real Valladolid II	5	+7	9
7	CF Talavera	5	+2	8
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	+1	7
9	Navalcarnero	5	0	7
10	RSD Alcalá	5	0	6
11	Real Ávila	5	−3	6
12	Guadalajara	5	−1	5
13	Atlético Paso	5	−2	5
14	Albacete II	5	−8	5
15	Atlético Tordesillas	5	−2	4
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	−6	4
17	Getafe II	5	−2	3
18	Real Madrid III	5	−3	3