Calvo Sotelo v RSD Alcalá prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Calvo Sotelo 0–0 RSD Alcalá RSD ALCALÁ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RSD Alcalá win~~40%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RSD Alcalá win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: RSD Alcalá 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
2′Little has changed for our model: RSD Alcalá 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
71′We said RSD Alcalá at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–0 · 17–63–20
86′We said RSD Alcalá at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–0 · 5–90–6
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' RSD Alcalá win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Calvo Sotelo 0–0 RSD Alcalá
FTCalvo Sotelo 0–0 RSD Alcalá · RSD Alcalá win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Calvo Sotelo win32%

Draw27%

RSD Alcalá win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Calvo Sotelo

RSD Alcalá

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	RSD Alcalá	5	0	6
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	−6	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rsd alcalá winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market34%

Us40%

~~Market~~34%

We make RSD Alcalá a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rsd alcalá win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Calvo Sotelo win	32%	36%	−4
Draw	27%	30%	−3
RSD Alcalá win	40%	34%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	25%	0
Calvo Sotelo or draw	60%	66%	−6
Calvo Sotelo clean sheet	27%	–	–
RSD Alcalá clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.2 10.5 7.3 3.4 1 9.2 12.7 8.0 3.7 2 5.6 7.1 4.6 2.1 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Calvo Sotelo down, RSD Alcalá across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Calvo Sotelo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). RSD Alcalá away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Calvo Sotelo, 1.35 for RSD Alcalá. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

CALVO SOTELO

LLDLWL1–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

RSD ALCALÁ

LWLWLL1–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
2	A Madrid III	5	+3	12
3	Numancia	5	+5	11
4	Conquense	5	+3	10
5	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
6	Real Valladolid II	5	+7	9
7	CF Talavera	5	+2	8
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	+1	7
9	Navalcarnero	5	0	7
10	RSD Alcalá	5	0	6
11	Real Ávila	5	−3	6
12	Guadalajara	5	−1	5
13	Atlético Paso	5	−2	5
14	Albacete II	5	−8	5
15	Atlético Tordesillas	5	−2	4
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	−6	4
17	Getafe II	5	−2	3
18	Real Madrid III	5	−3	3