Atlético Tordesillas v Guadalajara prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Atlético Tordesillas 3–0 Guadalajara GUADALAJARA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guadalajara win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.665

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guadalajara win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guadalajara 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Tordesillas v Guadalajara
6′Atlético Tordesillas find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–20–19
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Atlético Tordesillas 1–0 Guadalajara
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Guadalajara win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Atlético Tordesillas win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Guadalajara win 19%)
7′We said Guadalajara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–20–19
17′A goal for Atlético Tordesillas on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 83–11–6
17′We said Guadalajara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–0 · 83–11–6
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Atlético Tordesillas 2–0 Guadalajara
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Guadalajara win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
22′Atlético Tordesillas score on 22′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 95–4–1
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Atlético Tordesillas 3–0 Guadalajara
23′We said Guadalajara at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 3–0 · 95–4–1
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 96–3–1
45′23′: Chatun on the scoresheet for Atlético Tordesillas, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–0
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Guadalajara win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Tordesillas 3–0 Guadalajara
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Tordesillas 3–0 Guadalajara
FTFULL TIME Atlético Tordesillas 3–0 Guadalajara
FTAtlético Tordesillas 3–0 Guadalajara · Guadalajara win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guadalajara are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Tordesillas 34%, draw 26%, Guadalajara 40%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Tordesillas v GuadalajaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Tordesillas win34%

Draw26%

Guadalajara win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Tordesillas

Guadalajara

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalajara winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Guadalajara a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Tordesillas v Guadalajara~~1.37 – 1.52

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Tordesillas win	34%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Guadalajara win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Atlético Tordesillas or draw	60%	–	–
Atlético Tordesillas clean sheet	23%	–	–
Guadalajara clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 7.9 6.4 3.3 1 7.1 12.0 8.5 4.3 2 5.3 7.7 5.7 2.9 3 2.5 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Tordesillas down, Guadalajara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Atlético Tordesillas at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Guadalajara away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Atlético Tordesillas, 1.52 for Guadalajara. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 6 Sept

ATLÉTICO TORDESILLAS

LLDLWD1–3 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

GUADALAJARA

LWLDDW2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
2	Conquense	6	+7	13
3	Numancia	6	+5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	+3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	+7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	+1	9
9	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5
16	Albacete II	6	−12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4
18	Getafe II	6	−5	3