Albacete II v A Madrid III prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Albacete IIDrawA Madrid III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · A Madrid III 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with A Madrid III just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Albacete II 35%, draw 27%, A Madrid III 38%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Albacete II v A Madrid IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Albacete II win35%

Draw27%

A Madrid III win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albacete II

A Madrid III

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
15	Albacete II	7	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · a madrid iii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make A Madrid III a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albacete II v A Madrid III~~1.38 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~15 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albacete II win	35%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
A Madrid III win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Albacete II or draw	62%	–	–
Albacete II clean sheet	24%	–	–
A Madrid III clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.1 7.9 6.2 3.0 1 7.6 12.4 8.3 4.1 2 5.7 7.9 5.7 2.8 3 2.6 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albacete II down, A Madrid III across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,597 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Albacete II at home: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 3). A Madrid III away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Albacete II, 1.44 for A Madrid III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 12 Sept

ALBACETE II

WLDLLD4–3 · 1–6 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 2–2

A MADRID III

LWWWDD0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SS Reyes	8	+5	16
2	Conquense	7	+7	14
3	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
4	Real Valladolid II	7	+8	13
5	Numancia	8	+4	13
6	Salamanca UDS	7	+3	13
7	CF Talavera	7	+3	12
8	Navalcarnero	8	+1	12
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	8	+1	10
10	Atlético Tordesillas	8	+1	9
11	Atlético Paso	8	0	9
12	Guadalajara	7	−1	8
13	RSD Alcalá	8	−1	8
14	Real Ávila	8	−7	7
15	Albacete II	7	−12	6
16	Real Madrid III	7	−3	5
17	Calvo Sotelo	7	−7	5
18	Getafe II	7	−5	4