A Madrid III v Gimnástica Segoviana prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

A Madrid III 1–1 Gimnástica Segoviana A MADRID III WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said A Madrid III win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said A Madrid III win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: A Madrid III was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
1′KICK-OFF A Madrid III v Gimnástica Segoviana
31′PENALTY MISSED · 30' Gimnástica Segoviana
45′HALF-TIME A Madrid III 0–0 Gimnástica Segoviana
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was A Madrid III win 34%)
46′SECOND HALF A Madrid III 0–0 Gimnástica Segoviana
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' A Madrid III win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–44–25
56′We said A Madrid III at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–45–25
59′We said A Madrid III at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
63′Gimnástica Segoviana score on 63′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–73
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' A Madrid III 0–1 Gimnástica Segoviana
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' A Madrid III win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Gimnástica Segoviana win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
64′We said A Madrid III at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–21–74
68′We said A Madrid III at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' A Madrid III win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
79′A Madrid III find the net on 79′. 1–1. 1–1 · 15–73–12
79′We said A Madrid III at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–73–12
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' A Madrid III 1–1 Gimnástica Segoviana
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' A Madrid III win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Gimnástica Segoviana win 12%)
80′We said A Madrid III at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' A Madrid III win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME A Madrid III 1–1 Gimnástica Segoviana
FTA Madrid III 1–1 Gimnástica Segoviana · A Madrid III win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A Madrid III are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: A Madrid III 42%, draw 26%, Gimnástica Segoviana 32%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on A Madrid III v Gimnástica SegovianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

A Madrid III win42%

Draw26%

Gimnástica Segoviana win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

A Madrid III

Gimnástica Segoviana

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	A Madrid III	6	+3	13
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · a madrid iii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make A Madrid III a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · A Madrid III v Gimnástica Segoviana~~1.53 – 1.29

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · A Madrid III win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
A Madrid III win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Gimnástica Segoviana win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
A Madrid III or draw	68%	–	–
A Madrid III clean sheet	28%	–	–
Gimnástica Segoviana clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 7.2 5.0 2.2 1 8.6 12.1 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 8.6 5.5 2.4 3 3.6 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+A Madrid III down, Gimnástica Segoviana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

A Madrid III at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Gimnástica Segoviana away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for A Madrid III, 1.29 for Gimnástica Segoviana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 5 Sept

A MADRID III

WLWWWD2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

GIMNÁSTICA SEGOVIANA

WLLWDD3–0 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Conquense	6	+7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	+3	13
3	Numancia	6	+5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	+3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	+3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	+7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	+3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	+2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	+1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	−3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	−2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	−3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	−6	5
16	Albacete II	6	−12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	−3	4
18	Getafe II	6	−5	3