A Madrid III v CF Talavera prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

A Madrid IIIDrawCF Talavera

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · A Madrid III 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with A Madrid III just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: A Madrid III 37%, draw 31%, CF Talavera 33%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on A Madrid III v CF TalaveraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

A Madrid III win37%

Draw31%

CF Talavera win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

A Madrid III

CF Talavera

14Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
7	CF Talavera	7	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · a madrid iii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make A Madrid III a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · A Madrid III v CF Talavera~~1.13 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~3 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
A Madrid III win	37%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
CF Talavera win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
A Madrid III or draw	67%	–	–
A Madrid III clean sheet	35%	–	–
CF Talavera clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 12.5 11.0 6.3 2.3 1 11.8 13.9 6.8 2.5 2 7.2 7.4 3.9 3 2.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+A Madrid III down, CF Talavera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,597 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

A Madrid III at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). CF Talavera away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for A Madrid III, 1.06 for CF Talavera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 this season · since 13 Sept

A MADRID III

LWWWDD0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

CF TALAVERA

DDWWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SS Reyes	8	+5	16
2	Conquense	7	+7	14
3	A Madrid III	7	+3	14
4	Real Valladolid II	7	+8	13
5	Numancia	8	+4	13
6	Salamanca UDS	7	+3	13
7	CF Talavera	7	+3	12
8	Navalcarnero	8	+1	12
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	8	+1	10
10	Atlético Tordesillas	8	+1	9
11	Atlético Paso	8	0	9
12	Guadalajara	7	−1	8
13	RSD Alcalá	8	−1	8
14	Real Ávila	8	−7	7
15	Albacete II	7	−12	6
16	Real Madrid III	7	−3	5
17	Calvo Sotelo	7	−7	5
18	Getafe II	7	−5	4