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Xerez v Marbella
XerezMarbellaSegunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 25 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Xerez are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Xerez 46%, draw 31%, Marbella 23%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 34%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Xerez win46%Marbella win23%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00
RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8
Match timeline
All events
XerezMINMarbellaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Xerez
Marbella
Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Xerez | 7 | −2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 7 | −3 | 6 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Xerez a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez win | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Marbella win | 23% | 21% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 39% | −11 |
| Both teams to score | 34% | 43% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55% | 64% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 20% | −8 |
| Xerez or draw | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Xerez clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Marbella clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept
XEREZ
MARBELLA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Betis II | 7 | +7 | 14 |
| 2 |  Recreativo Huelva | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Badajoz | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 |  Don Benito | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 7 | +4 | 12 |
| 7 |  Estepona | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Linares Deportivo | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  Puente Genil | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 |  Tenerife II | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 |  Sevilla Atletico | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 |  Sanluqueño | 7 | −1 | 7 |
| 13 | Xerez | 7 | −2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Atlético Central | 7 | −5 | 6 |
| 16 |  Tamaraceite | 7 | −7 | 6 |
| 17 |  Las Palmas II | 7 | −8 | 5 |
| 18 |  Antoniano | 7 | −6 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.