Tenerife II v Mijas Las Lagunas prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Tenerife II 1–3 Mijas Las Lagunas TENERIFE II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tenerife II win~~50%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.846

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.020

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tenerife II win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tenerife II 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
1′KICK-OFF Tenerife II v Mijas Las Lagunas
25′Mijas Las Lagunas find the net on 25′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–55
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tenerife II 0–1 Mijas Las Lagunas
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Tenerife II win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Mijas Las Lagunas win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Tenerife II win 20%)
26′We said Tenerife II at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–25–55
28′We said Tenerife II at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 19–25–56
40′A goal for Mijas Las Lagunas on 40′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–85
40′We said Tenerife II at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Tenerife II 0–2 Mijas Las Lagunas
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Tenerife II win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
42′Tenerife II score on 41′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 15–26–60
42′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 15–26–60
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Tenerife II 1–2 Mijas Las Lagunas
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Tenerife II win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
43′We said Tenerife II at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
45′HALF-TIME Tenerife II 1–3 Mijas Las Lagunas
46′SECOND HALF Tenerife II 1–3 Mijas Las Lagunas
50′Mijas Las Lagunas find the net on 45′. 1–3. 1–3 · 3–9–88
50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Tenerife II 1–3 Mijas Las Lagunas
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Tenerife II win: 50% at kick-off, 3% now
51′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–9–89
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Tenerife II win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Tenerife II 1–3 Mijas Las Lagunas
FTTenerife II 1–3 Mijas Las Lagunas · Tenerife II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tenerife II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tenerife II 50%, draw 24%, Mijas Las Lagunas 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Tenerife II v Mijas Las LagunasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tenerife II win50%

Draw24%

Mijas Las Lagunas win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tenerife II

Mijas Las Lagunas

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Tenerife II	6	+2	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tenerife ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market56%

Us50%

~~Market~~56%

We make Tenerife II a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tenerife II v Mijas Las Lagunas~~1.69 – 1.16

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~5 v 9

~~The market · Tenerife II win~~56% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tenerife II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tenerife II win	50%	56%	−6
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Mijas Las Lagunas win	26%	20%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Tenerife II or draw	74%	80%	−6
Tenerife II clean sheet	32%	–	–
Mijas Las Lagunas clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.1 6.9 4.0 1 9.9 11.1 6.4 2.5 2 8.2 9.2 5.3 2.1 3 4.7 5.3 3.0 4 2.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tenerife II down, Mijas Las Lagunas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Tenerife II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Mijas Las Lagunas away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Tenerife II, 1.16 for Mijas Las Lagunas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

TENERIFE II

LWWWLD1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

MIJAS LAS LAGUNAS

LDDWDW0–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 6–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	+6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	+5	11
4	Badajoz	6	+2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	+2	10
6	Estepona	6	+1	10
7	Don Benito	6	+1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	+2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	+1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	0	7
13	Xerez	6	−1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	−3	6
15	Marbella	6	−3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	−7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	−8	3
18	Antoniano	6	−6	2