Sevilla Atletico v Tenerife II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sevilla AtleticoDrawTenerife II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sevilla Atletico 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sevilla Atletico are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sevilla Atletico 55%, draw 24%, Tenerife II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sevilla Atletico v Tenerife IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sevilla Atletico win55%

Draw24%

Tenerife II win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Jesus Navas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sevilla Atletico

Tenerife II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tenerife II	7	0	10
11	Sevilla Atletico	7	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sevilla atletico winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

55% The market44%

Us55%

~~Market~~44%

We make Sevilla Atletico a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sevilla Atletico v Tenerife II~~1.75 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~11 v 10

~~The market · Sevilla Atletico win~~44% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sevilla Atletico win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sevilla Atletico win	55%	44%	+11
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Tenerife II win	22%	29%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	58%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Sevilla Atletico or draw	78%	71%	+7
Sevilla Atletico clean sheet	37%	–	–
Tenerife II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 6.8 6.5 3.3 1 11.2 11.0 5.5 2 9.7 9.4 4.7 3 5.7 5.5 2.7 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sevilla Atletico down, Tenerife II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,597 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sevilla Atletico at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tenerife II away: 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Sevilla Atletico, 1.00 for Tenerife II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

SEVILLA ATLETICO

WDLDLD3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–3

TENERIFE II

WWWLDL3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	7	+7	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	7	+6	14
3	Ciudad de Lucena	7	+6	14
4	Badajoz	7	+3	14
5	Don Benito	7	+3	13
6	Mijas Las Lagunas	7	+4	12
7	Estepona	7	+1	11
8	Linares Deportivo	7	0	11
9	Puente Genil	7	+2	10
10	Tenerife II	7	0	10
11	Sevilla Atletico	7	0	9
12	Sanluqueño	7	−1	7
13	Xerez	7	−2	6
14	Marbella	7	−3	6
15	Atlético Central	7	−5	6
16	Tamaraceite	7	−7	6
17	Las Palmas II	7	−8	5
18	Antoniano	7	−6	3