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Model 1.1

Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 › Sanluqueño v Recreativo Huelva

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Sanluqueño v Recreativo Huelva

Sanluqueño
3–3Full time
Recreativo Huelva

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio El Palmar

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Sanluqueño 3–3 Recreativo Huelva SANLUQUEÑO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sanluqueño win37%
The market said29%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.759
The market’s Brier score0.762

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sanluqueño win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sanluqueño 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Sanluqueño 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–34
  4. 22′A. Alonso scores for Recreativo Huelva on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–66
  5. 23′A. Alonso scores for Recreativo Huelva on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–66
  6. 42′We said Sanluqueño at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–70
  7. 45′44′ and it is 0–2: Recreativo Huelva have scored. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  8. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Sanluqueño win: 37% at kick-off, 1% now
  9. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Sanluqueño win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
  10. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Sanluqueño win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
  11. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Sanluqueño win: 37% at kick-off, 1% now
  12. 49′Sanluqueño find the net on 47′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–72
  13. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sanluqueño win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
  14. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sanluqueño win: 37% at kick-off, 1% now
  15. 53′Sanluqueño find the net on 47′. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
  16. 66′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sanluqueño 1–2 Recreativo Huelva · A. Alonso
  17. 66′⚽ GOAL · 45' Sanluqueño 1–2 Recreativo Huelva · A. Alonso
  18. 66′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sanluqueño 1–2 Recreativo Huelva
  19. 69′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sanluqueño 1–2 Recreativo Huelva · A. Alonso
  20. 69′⚽ GOAL · 45' Sanluqueño 1–2 Recreativo Huelva · A. Alonso
  21. 69′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sanluqueño 1–2 Recreativo Huelva
  22. 73′We said Sanluqueño at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  23. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Sanluqueño 2–2 Recreativo Huelva
  24. 89′A goal for Sanluqueño on 82′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–98–1
  25. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Recreativo Huelva win 1%)
  26. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
  27. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Recreativo Huelva win 1%)
  28. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Recreativo Huelva win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
  29. 90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Sanluqueño 3–2 Recreativo Huelva
  30. FTFULL TIME Sanluqueño 3–3 Recreativo Huelva
  31. FTSanluqueño 3–3 Recreativo Huelva · Sanluqueño win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sanluqueño win37%
Draw29%
Recreativo Huelva win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueEstadio El Palmar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sanluqueño

Recreativo Huelva

7Days since last match7
1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Recreativo Huelva5+612
11Sanluqueño506

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sanluqueño winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
37% The market29%
Us37%
Market29%

We make Sanluqueño a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40% 9 OCT 06:2011 OCT 14:43
Our probability · sanluqueño win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 24% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sanluqueño win37%29%+8
Draw29%29%0
Recreativo Huelva win34%42%−8
Over 2.5 goals38%45%−7
Both teams to score44%50%−7
Over 1.5 goals64%68%−4
Over 3.5 goals19%24%−5
Sanluqueño or draw66%58%+8
Sanluqueño clean sheet35%––
Recreativo Huelva clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 11.4 11.9 6.4 2.4 1 12.4 13.0 7.0 2.6 2 7.0 7.3 3.9 3 2.7 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sanluqueño down, Recreativo Huelva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsREC 1–0 SAN · SAN 1–1 REC

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

SANLUQUEÑO

WDWDLD2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

RECREATIVO HUELVA

WLWWWW3–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Real Betis II6+814
2Recreativo Huelva5+612
3Don Benito5+310
4Tenerife II5+29
5Ciudad de Lucena5+38
6Sevilla Atletico5+28
7Badajoz5+18
8Estepona507
9Linares Deportivo5−17
10Mijas Las Lagunas506
11Sanluqueño506
12Xerez6−16
13Atlético Central5−26
14Marbella5−25
15Puente Genil504
16Las Palmas II5−74
17Tamaraceite5−73
18Antoniano5−52

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.