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Recreativo Huelva v Antoniano

Recreativo Huelva

5–0Full time

Antoniano

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 24 OCT · Nuevo Colombino

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Recreativo Huelva 5–0 Antoniano RECREATIVO HUELVA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Recreativo Huelva win~~58%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.263

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.217

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Recreativo Huelva win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Recreativo Huelva was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
1′KICK-OFF Recreativo Huelva v Antoniano
9′A goal for Recreativo Huelva on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–4
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Recreativo Huelva 1–0 Antoniano
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Recreativo Huelva win: 58% at kick-off, 83% now
10′We published Recreativo Huelva at 58%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
34′Recreativo Huelva score on 34′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Recreativo Huelva 2–0 Antoniano
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Recreativo Huelva win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
35′We published Recreativo Huelva at 58%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′HALF-TIME Recreativo Huelva 2–0 Antoniano
46′Recreativo Huelva find the net on 46′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
46′SECOND HALF Recreativo Huelva 2–0 Antoniano
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Recreativo Huelva 3–0 Antoniano
47′We published Recreativo Huelva at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Recreativo Huelva win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
48′Recreativo Huelva find the net on 48′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′A goal for Recreativo Huelva on 60′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
61′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Recreativo Huelva 4–0 Antoniano
81′Recreativo Huelva score on 81′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Recreativo Huelva 5–0 Antoniano
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
91′A red card for Recreativo Huelva on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 5–0 · 100–0–0
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Recreativo Huelva
FTFULL TIME Recreativo Huelva 5–0 Antoniano
FTRecreativo Huelva 5–0 Antoniano · Recreativo Huelva win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Recreativo Huelva are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Recreativo Huelva 58%, draw 25%, Antoniano 17%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Recreativo Huelva v AntonianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Recreativo Huelva win58%

Draw25%

Antoniano win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

VenueNuevo Colombino

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Recreativo Huelva

Antoniano

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

5Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Recreativo Huelva	7	+6	14
18	Antoniano	7	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · recreativo huelva winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:29 · locked at kick-off

58% The market62%

Us58%

~~Market~~62%

We make Recreativo Huelva a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Recreativo Huelva v Antoniano~~1.61 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 3~~2 v 18

~~The market · Recreativo Huelva win~~62% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Recreativo Huelva win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Recreativo Huelva win	58%	62%	−4
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Antoniano win	17%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	41%	43%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Recreativo Huelva or draw	83%	86%	−3
Recreativo Huelva clean sheet	49%	–	–
Antoniano clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 10.0 7.1 2.6 1 15.6 11.1 4.1 2 12.4 8.8 3.2 3 6.7 4.8 4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Recreativo Huelva down, Antoniano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Recreativo Huelva at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Antoniano away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Recreativo Huelva, 0.73 for Antoniano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ANT 2–0 REC · REC 2–0 ANT · REC 1–0 ANT · ANT 0–2 REC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

RECREATIVO HUELVA

WWWWDD2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 0–0

ANTONIANO

DDLLLD0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	7	+7	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	7	+6	14
3	Ciudad de Lucena	7	+6	14
4	Badajoz	7	+3	14
5	Don Benito	7	+3	13
6	Mijas Las Lagunas	7	+4	12
7	Estepona	7	+1	11
8	Linares Deportivo	7	0	11
9	Puente Genil	7	+2	10
10	Tenerife II	7	0	10
11	Sevilla Atletico	7	0	9
12	Sanluqueño	7	−1	7
13	Xerez	7	−2	6
14	Marbella	7	−3	6
15	Atlético Central	7	−5	6
16	Tamaraceite	7	−7	6
17	Las Palmas II	7	−8	5
18	Antoniano	7	−6	3