Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 › Real Betis II v Xerez

Real Betis II v Xerez

Real Betis II

1–1Full time

Xerez

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT · Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Real Betis II 1–1 Xerez REAL BETIS II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Betis II win~~47%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.725

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.831

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Betis II win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Real Betis II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–33–20
7′Much as we predicted: Real Betis II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–34–20
31′Xerez ahead on 23′ through Chuma. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–27–61
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
45′Xerez ahead on 23′ through Chuma. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–25–66
45′We said Real Betis II at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–25–66
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Real Betis II 0–1 Xerez
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Xerez win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Real Betis II win 8%)
46′SECOND HALF Real Betis II 0–1 Xerez
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Xerez win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Real Betis II win 8%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Xerez win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Real Betis II win 8%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Xerez win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Real Betis II win 8%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Real Betis II win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Xerez win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Real Betis II win 8%)
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Real Betis II 1–1 Xerez
78′⚽ GOAL · 23' Real Betis II 1–1 Xerez · Chuma
78′⚽ GOAL · 68' Real Betis II 1–1 Xerez · R. Funez
81′⚽ GOAL · 23' Real Betis II 1–1 Xerez · Chuma
81′⚽ GOAL · 68' Real Betis II 1–1 Xerez · R. Funez
FTFULL TIME Real Betis II 1–1 Xerez
FTReal Betis II 1–1 Xerez · Real Betis II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Real Betis II win47%

Draw32%

Xerez win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real betis ii winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

47% The market50%

Us47%

~~Market~~50%

We make Real Betis II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real betis ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Betis II win	47%	50%	−3
Draw	32%	27%	+5
Xerez win	21%	22%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	25%	47%	−21
Both teams to score	30%	50%	−19
Over 1.5 goals	51%	69%	−18
Over 3.5 goals	10%	27%	−17
Real Betis II or draw	79%	78%	+2
Real Betis II clean sheet	54%	–	–
Xerez clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.5%

0123450 18.1 11.0 3.4 1 19.5 11.8 3.7 2 10.8 6.6 2.1 3 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Betis II down, Xerez across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Real Betis II at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Xerez away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Real Betis II, 0.62 for Xerez. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

REAL BETIS II

DWDWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 2–0

XEREZ

WDLDLW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	5	+8	13
2	Recreativo Huelva	5	+6	12
3	Don Benito	5	+3	10
4	Tenerife II	5	+2	9
5	Ciudad de Lucena	5	+3	8
6	Sevilla Atletico	5	+2	8
7	Badajoz	5	+1	8
8	Estepona	5	0	7
9	Linares Deportivo	5	−1	7
10	Mijas Las Lagunas	5	0	6
11	Sanluqueño	5	0	6
12	Atlético Central	5	−2	6
13	Xerez	5	−1	5
14	Marbella	5	−2	5
15	Puente Genil	5	0	4
16	Las Palmas II	5	−7	4
17	Tamaraceite	5	−7	3
18	Antoniano	5	−5	2