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Mijas Las Lagunas v Sevilla Atletico

Mijas Las Lagunas

3–1Full time

Sevilla Atletico

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Mijas Las Lagunas 3–1 Sevilla Atletico MIJAS LAS LAGUNAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mijas Las Lagunas win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.565

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mijas Las Lagunas win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mijas Las Lagunas was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–35
2′Much as we predicted: Mijas Las Lagunas was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
22′Mijas Las Lagunas ahead on 15′ through C. Jimenez. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–12
42′A goal for Mijas Las Lagunas on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′C. Padilla scores for Mijas Las Lagunas on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′We published Mijas Las Lagunas at 39%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
50′47′ and it is 2–1: Sevilla Atletico have scored. 2–1 · 73–21–6
70′47′ and it is 2–1: Sevilla Atletico have scored. 2–1 · 81–16–2
86′Mijas Las Lagunas ahead on 76′ through A. Peral. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Mijas Las Lagunas win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
FTFULL TIME Mijas Las Lagunas 3–1 Sevilla Atletico
FTMijas Las Lagunas 3–1 Sevilla Atletico · Mijas Las Lagunas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mijas Las Lagunas win39%

Draw26%

Sevilla Atletico win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mijas Las Lagunas

Sevilla Atletico

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sevilla Atletico	5	+2	8
10	Mijas Las Lagunas	5	0	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mijas las lagunas winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Mijas Las Lagunas a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mijas las lagunas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mijas Las Lagunas win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Sevilla Atletico win	35%	35%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	0
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	27%	−2
Mijas Las Lagunas or draw	65%	65%	0
Mijas Las Lagunas clean sheet	30%	–	–
Sevilla Atletico clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.3 9.8 6.0 2.5 1 10.3 12.3 7.5 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.9 2.0 3 3.1 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mijas Las Lagunas down, Sevilla Atletico across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mijas Las Lagunas at home: 3.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Sevilla Atletico away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Mijas Las Lagunas, 1.23 for Sevilla Atletico. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

MIJAS LAS LAGUNAS

LDDWD0–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 6–2 · 2–2

SEVILLA ATLETICO

DWWDLD1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	5	+6	12
3	Don Benito	5	+3	10
4	Tenerife II	5	+2	9
5	Ciudad de Lucena	5	+3	8
6	Sevilla Atletico	5	+2	8
7	Badajoz	5	+1	8
8	Estepona	5	0	7
9	Linares Deportivo	5	−1	7
10	Mijas Las Lagunas	5	0	6
11	Sanluqueño	5	0	6
12	Xerez	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Central	5	−2	6
14	Marbella	5	−2	5
15	Puente Genil	5	0	4
16	Las Palmas II	5	−7	4
17	Tamaraceite	5	−7	3
18	Antoniano	5	−5	2