Marbella v Estepona prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Marbella 0–0 Estepona MARBELLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marbella win~~43%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marbella are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marbella 43%, draw 27%, Estepona 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Marbella v EsteponaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Marbella win43%

Draw27%

Estepona win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

VenueBanus Football Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marbella

Estepona

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Estepona	6	+1	10
15	Marbella	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marbella winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market33%

Us43%

~~Market~~33%

We make Marbella a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marbella v Estepona~~1.38 – 1.09

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~15 v 6

~~The market · Marbella win~~33% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Marbella win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marbella win	43%	33%	+10
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Estepona win	30%	38%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Marbella or draw	70%	62%	+8
Marbella clean sheet	34%	–	–
Estepona clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.8 9.4 5.1 1 11.8 12.4 6.7 2.5 2 8.0 8.4 4.6 3 3.7 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marbella down, Estepona across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marbella at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Estepona away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Marbella, 1.09 for Estepona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–0 EST · EST 0–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

MARBELLA

DLWDLL2–2 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

ESTEPONA

DLWLWW0–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	+6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	+5	11
4	Badajoz	6	+2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	+2	10
6	Estepona	6	+1	10
7	Don Benito	6	+1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	+2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	+1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	0	7
13	Xerez	6	−1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	−3	6
15	Marbella	6	−3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	−7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	−8	3
18	Antoniano	6	−6	2