Las Palmas II v Tenerife II prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Las Palmas II 1–1 Tenerife II TENERIFE II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tenerife II win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.814

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tenerife II win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Las Palmas II v Tenerife II
4′Much as we predicted: Tenerife II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 32–28–41
5′Much as we predicted: Tenerife II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Las Palmas II 1–0 Tenerife II
45′HALF-TIME Las Palmas II 1–0 Tenerife II
46′SECOND HALF Las Palmas II 1–0 Tenerife II
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Las Palmas II 1–1 Tenerife II
FTFULL TIME Las Palmas II 1–1 Tenerife II
FTLas Palmas II 1–1 Tenerife II · Tenerife II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Las Palmas II win32%

Draw27%

Tenerife II win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Las Palmas II

Tenerife II

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tenerife II	5	+2	9
16	Las Palmas II	5	−7	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tenerife ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Tenerife II a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tenerife ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Las Palmas II win	32%	34%	−2
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Tenerife II win	41%	38%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Las Palmas II or draw	59%	62%	−3
Las Palmas II clean sheet	27%	–	–
Tenerife II clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.7 11.1 7.4 3.4 1 9.7 12.3 8.1 3.7 2 5.6 7.0 4.6 2.1 3 2.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Las Palmas II down, Tenerife II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Las Palmas II at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tenerife II away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Las Palmas II, 1.35 for Tenerife II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

LAS PALMAS II

LLLWDL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–4

TENERIFE II

LWWWL1–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	5	+6	12
3	Don Benito	5	+3	10
4	Tenerife II	5	+2	9
5	Ciudad de Lucena	5	+3	8
6	Sevilla Atletico	5	+2	8
7	Badajoz	5	+1	8
8	Estepona	5	0	7
9	Linares Deportivo	5	−1	7
10	Mijas Las Lagunas	5	0	6
11	Sanluqueño	5	0	6
12	Xerez	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Central	5	−2	6
14	Marbella	5	−2	5
15	Puente Genil	5	0	4
16	Las Palmas II	5	−7	4
17	Tamaraceite	5	−7	3
18	Antoniano	5	−5	2