Las Palmas II v Puente Genil prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Las Palmas II 1–2 Puente Genil LAS PALMAS II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Las Palmas II win~~36%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.651

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Las Palmas II win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Las Palmas II 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–34
1′KICK-OFF Las Palmas II v Puente Genil
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Las Palmas II win 32%)
30′Puente Genil score on 29′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
30′We said Las Palmas II at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Las Palmas II 0–1 Puente Genil
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Las Palmas II win: 36% at kick-off, 9% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Puente Genil win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Las Palmas II win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
45′HALF-TIME Las Palmas II 1–1 Puente Genil
46′SECOND HALF Las Palmas II 1–1 Puente Genil
47′Las Palmas II find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–47–26
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Las Palmas II 1–1 Puente Genil
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Las Palmas II win: 36% at kick-off, 27% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Puente Genil win 26%)
55′We said Las Palmas II at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
66′We said Las Palmas II at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Las Palmas II win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
72′A goal for Puente Genil on 72′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Las Palmas II 1–2 Puente Genil
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Las Palmas II win: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Puente Genil win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
73′We said Las Palmas II at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–14–85
73′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–14–85
FTFULL TIME Las Palmas II 1–2 Puente Genil
FTLas Palmas II 1–2 Puente Genil · Las Palmas II win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Las Palmas II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Las Palmas II 36%, draw 30%, Puente Genil 34%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Las Palmas II v Puente GenilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Las Palmas II win36%

Draw30%

Puente Genil win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Las Palmas II

Puente Genil

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Puente Genil	6	+1	7
16	Las Palmas II	6	−7	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · las palmas ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market40%

Us36%

~~Market~~40%

We make Las Palmas II a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Las Palmas II v Puente Genil~~1.04 – 1.02

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~16 v 11

~~The market · Las Palmas II win~~40% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Las Palmas II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Las Palmas II win	36%	40%	−4
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Puente Genil win	34%	30%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Both teams to score	40%	48%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	60%	67%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
Las Palmas II or draw	66%	70%	−4
Las Palmas II clean sheet	37%	–	–
Puente Genil clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 13.3 12.9 6.5 2.3 1 13.5 12.9 6.5 2.3 2 7.0 6.7 3.4 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Las Palmas II down, Puente Genil across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Las Palmas II at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Puente Genil away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Las Palmas II, 1.02 for Puente Genil. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

LAS PALMAS II

LLWDLD0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 1–1

PUENTE GENIL

WLLDLW4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	+6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	+5	11
4	Badajoz	6	+2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	+2	10
6	Estepona	6	+1	10
7	Don Benito	6	+1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	+2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	+1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	0	7
13	Xerez	6	−1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	−3	6
15	Marbella	6	−3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	−7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	−8	3
18	Antoniano	6	−6	2