Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 › Estepona v Ciudad de Lucena

Back
Spain flag

Estepona v Ciudad de Lucena

Estepona
2–2Full time
Ciudad de Lucena

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46
Estepona 2–2 Ciudad de Lucena ESTEPONA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Estepona win44%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.813
The market’s Brier score0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Estepona win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Estepona 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Estepona v Ciudad de Lucena
  4. 21′A goal for Estepona on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–9
  5. 21′We said Estepona at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–9
  6. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Estepona 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena
  7. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
  8. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–8
  10. 37′We said Estepona at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Estepona 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Estepona 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena
  13. 59′We said Estepona at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  14. 60′Ciudad de Lucena score on 60′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 28–52–20
  15. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Estepona 1–1 Ciudad de Lucena
  16. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 28% now
  17. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Estepona win 80%)
  18. 61′We said Estepona at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–53–20
  19. 66′Estepona find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–2
  20. 66′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–15–2
  21. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Estepona 2–1 Ciudad de Lucena
  22. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 82% now
  23. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Estepona win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 57%)
  24. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  25. 71′We said Estepona at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  26. 77′A goal for Estepona on 76′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  27. 77′We said Estepona at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Estepona 3–1 Ciudad de Lucena
  29. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 78′GOAL DISALLOWED · 78' Estepona
  31. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 89% now
  32. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  33. 88′A goal for Ciudad de Lucena on 88′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 6–90–4
  34. 88′We said Estepona at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–2 · 6–90–4
  35. 88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 6–90–4
  36. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Estepona 2–2 Ciudad de Lucena
  37. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 6% now
  38. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Estepona win 96%)
  39. 90′We said Estepona at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–3
  40. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Estepona win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  41. FTFULL TIME Estepona 2–2 Ciudad de Lucena
  42. FTEstepona 2–2 Ciudad de Lucena · Estepona win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estepona are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estepona 44%, draw 27%, Ciudad de Lucena 29%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Estepona v Ciudad de LucenaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Estepona win44%
Draw27%
Ciudad de Lucena win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estepona

Ciudad de Lucena

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Ciudad de Lucena7+614
7Estepona7+111

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estepona winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
44% The market48%
Us44%
Market48%

We make Estepona a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Estepona v Ciudad de Lucena1.38 – 1.04
Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 11 v 147 v 3
The market · Estepona win48% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 17:07
Our probability · Estepona win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Estepona win44%48%−4
Draw27%28%−1
Ciudad de Lucena win29%24%+5
Over 2.5 goals43%45%−2
Both teams to score48%49%−1
Over 1.5 goals69%69%0
Over 3.5 goals23%25%−2
Estepona or draw71%76%−5
Estepona clean sheet36%––
Ciudad de Lucena clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 9.2 9.4 4.9 1 12.3 12.5 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.5 4.4 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Estepona down, Ciudad de Lucena across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

ESTEPONA

LWLWWD1–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 0–0

CIUDAD DE LUCENA

DLWWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Real Betis II7+714
2Recreativo Huelva7+614
3Ciudad de Lucena7+614
4Badajoz7+314
5Don Benito7+313
6Mijas Las Lagunas7+412
7Estepona7+111
8Linares Deportivo7011
9Puente Genil7+210
10Tenerife II7010
11Sevilla Atletico709
12Sanluqueño7−17
13Xerez7−26
14Marbella7−36
15Atlético Central7−56
16Tamaraceite7−76
17Las Palmas II7−85
18Antoniano7−63

The competition's standings before kick-off.