Home › Football › Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 › Estepona v Atlético Central

Estepona v Atlético Central

Estepona

3–2Full time

Atlético Central

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Estepona 3–2 Atlético Central ESTEPONA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estepona win~~52%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.273

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estepona win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Estepona was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–23
5′Much as we predicted: Estepona was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
24′17′ and it is 1–0: A. Candelas on the scoresheet for Estepona. 1–0 · 78–16–6
29′17′ and it is 1–0: A. Candelas on the scoresheet for Estepona. 1–0 · 78–16–6
45′We published Estepona at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′Atlético Central find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–40–20
46′Atlético Central ahead on 45′ through M. Gavilan. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–41–20
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Estepona 2–1 Atlético Central
67′A. Candelas scores for Estepona on 47′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 85% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 40% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 85% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 40% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 40% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 85% now
70′A. Candelas scores for Estepona on 47′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 86–12–1
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 85% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 40% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 86% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Estepona 2–2 Atlético Central
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Atlético Central
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Estepona 3–2 Atlético Central
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Estepona
90′Estepona ahead on 82′ through S. Baradji. 3–2. 3–2 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 100% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Estepona win: 52% at kick-off, 85% now
FTFULL TIME Estepona 3–2 Atlético Central
FTEstepona 3–2 Atlético Central · Estepona win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Estepona win52%

Draw25%

Atlético Central win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Estepona

Atlético Central

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Estepona	5	0	7
13	Atlético Central	5	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estepona winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

52% The market58%

Us52%

~~Market~~58%

We make Estepona a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · estepona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estepona win	52%	58%	−6
Draw	25%	25%	+1
Atlético Central win	23%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	47%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	47%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−3
Estepona or draw	77%	82%	−5
Estepona clean sheet	40%	–	–
Atlético Central clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 8.6 7.9 3.7 1 12.9 11.8 5.6 2 9.9 9.1 4.3 3 5.2 4.8 2.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estepona down, Atlético Central across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Estepona at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Central away: 1.00 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Estepona, 0.94 for Atlético Central. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

ESTEPONA

DDLWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

ATLÉTICO CENTRAL

WLLWL2–0 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	5	+6	12
3	Don Benito	5	+3	10
4	Tenerife II	5	+2	9
5	Ciudad de Lucena	5	+3	8
6	Sevilla Atletico	5	+2	8
7	Badajoz	5	+1	8
8	Estepona	5	0	7
9	Linares Deportivo	5	−1	7
10	Mijas Las Lagunas	5	0	6
11	Sanluqueño	5	0	6
12	Xerez	6	−1	6
13	Atlético Central	5	−2	6
14	Marbella	5	−2	5
15	Puente Genil	5	0	4
16	Las Palmas II	5	−7	4
17	Tamaraceite	5	−7	3
18	Antoniano	5	−5	2