Don Benito v Linares Deportivo prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Don Benito 1–1 Linares Deportivo DON BENITO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Don Benito win~~43%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Don Benito win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Don Benito was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Don Benito v Linares Deportivo
13′Don Benito score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–12
13′We published Don Benito at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Don Benito 1–0 Linares Deportivo
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Don Benito win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–9
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Don Benito win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Don Benito 1–0 Linares Deportivo
46′SECOND HALF Don Benito 1–0 Linares Deportivo
49′We published Don Benito at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
65′We published Don Benito at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Don Benito win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
74′We published Don Benito at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′Linares Deportivo find the net on 77′. 1–1. 1–1 · 15–72–12
78′We said Don Benito at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–72–12
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Don Benito 1–1 Linares Deportivo
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Don Benito win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Don Benito win 87%)
79′We said Don Benito at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Don Benito win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
84′We said Don Benito at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
91′We said Don Benito at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Don Benito win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Don Benito 1–1 Linares Deportivo
FTDon Benito 1–1 Linares Deportivo · Don Benito win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Don Benito are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Don Benito 43%, draw 25%, Linares Deportivo 31%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Don Benito v Linares DeportivoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Don Benito win43%

Draw25%

Linares Deportivo win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Don Benito

Linares Deportivo

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Don Benito	7	+3	13
8	Linares Deportivo	7	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · don benito winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Don Benito a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Don Benito v Linares Deportivo~~1.48 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~5 v 8

~~The market · Don Benito win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Don Benito win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Don Benito win	43%	43%	0
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Linares Deportivo win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Don Benito or draw	69%	71%	−2
Don Benito clean sheet	30%	–	–
Linares Deportivo clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.1 8.3 5.0 2.1 1 10.2 11.9 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.7 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Don Benito down, Linares Deportivo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Don Benito at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Linares Deportivo away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Don Benito, 1.21 for Linares Deportivo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DON 0–0 LIN · LIN 2–0 DON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

DON BENITO

WDWLLW3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 4–2

LINARES DEPORTIVO

WLLWWD4–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	7	+7	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	7	+6	14
3	Ciudad de Lucena	7	+6	14
4	Badajoz	7	+3	14
5	Don Benito	7	+3	13
6	Mijas Las Lagunas	7	+4	12
7	Estepona	7	+1	11
8	Linares Deportivo	7	0	11
9	Puente Genil	7	+2	10
10	Tenerife II	7	0	10
11	Sevilla Atletico	7	0	9
12	Sanluqueño	7	−1	7
13	Xerez	7	−2	6
14	Marbella	7	−3	6
15	Atlético Central	7	−5	6
16	Tamaraceite	7	−7	6
17	Las Palmas II	7	−8	5
18	Antoniano	7	−6	3