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Don Benito v Atlético Central

Don Benito

4–2Full time

Atlético Central

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Don Benito 4–2 Atlético Central DON BENITO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Don Benito win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.399

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Don Benito win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Don Benito v Atlético Central
2′Much as we predicted: Don Benito was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
14′A goal for Don Benito on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–11
14′We published Don Benito at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–11
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Don Benito 1–0 Atlético Central
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Don Benito win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Don Benito
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Don Benito win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
36′A goal for Don Benito on 36′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Don Benito 1–0 Atlético Central
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Don Benito win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Don Benito win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
43′Don Benito score on 43′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
43′We published Don Benito at 44%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Don Benito 2–0 Atlético Central
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Don Benito win: 44% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Don Benito 2–0 Atlético Central
46′42′: G. Santamaria on the scoresheet for Don Benito, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Don Benito win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
46′SECOND HALF Don Benito 2–0 Atlético Central
52′We published Don Benito at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
55′Don Benito find the net on 54′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Don Benito 3–0 Atlético Central
56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
61′We published Don Benito at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′Don Benito ahead on 53′ through N. Copete. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′A goal for Atlético Central on 62′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
62′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–3–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Don Benito 3–1 Atlético Central
68′J. A. Sanchez scores for Atlético Central on 61′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
81′Don Benito score on 81′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Don Benito 4–1 Atlético Central
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
88′80′: L. Busi on the scoresheet for Don Benito, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
89′Atlético Central find the net on 89′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Don Benito 4–2 Atlético Central
90′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Don Benito 4–2 Atlético Central
FTDon Benito 4–2 Atlético Central · Don Benito win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Don Benito are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Don Benito 44%, draw 25%, Atlético Central 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Don Benito v Atlético CentralBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Don Benito win44%

Draw25%

Atlético Central win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Don Benito

Atlético Central

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Don Benito	6	+1	10
14	Atlético Central	6	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · don benito winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Don Benito a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Don Benito v Atlético Central~~1.48 – 1.18

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~8 v 14

~~The market · Don Benito win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Don Benito win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Don Benito win	44%	49%	−5
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Atlético Central win	30%	23%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	49%	43%	+6
Both teams to score	52%	48%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	23%	+5
Don Benito or draw	70%	77%	−7
Don Benito clean sheet	31%	–	–
Atlético Central clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.3 8.4 4.9 1 10.5 11.9 6.9 2.8 2 7.7 8.7 5.1 2.0 3 3.9 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Don Benito down, Atlético Central across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Don Benito at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Central away: 1.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Don Benito, 1.18 for Atlético Central. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

DON BENITO

WWDWLL2–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–4

ATLÉTICO CENTRAL

WLLWLL2–0 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	7	+6	14
3	Mijas Las Lagunas	7	+4	12
4	Ciudad de Lucena	6	+5	11
5	Badajoz	6	+2	11
6	Linares Deportivo	7	0	11
7	Estepona	6	+1	10
8	Don Benito	6	+1	10
9	Tenerife II	7	0	10
10	Sevilla Atletico	7	0	9
11	Puente Genil	6	+1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	0	7
13	Xerez	6	−1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	−3	6
15	Marbella	6	−3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	−7	5
17	Antoniano	7	−6	3
18	Tamaraceite	6	−8	3