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Ciudad de Lucena v Don Benito
Ciudad de LucenaDon BenitoSegunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ciudad de Lucena win at 54%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Ciudad de Lucena 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–20
- 3′Little has changed for our model: Ciudad de Lucena 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–20
- 23′A goal for Don Benito on 22′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–14–79
- 24′We said Ciudad de Lucena at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–14–79
- 45′A goal for Ciudad de Lucena on 42′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 82–15–3
- 45′Alberto Garcia scores for Ciudad de Lucena on 41′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 82–15–3
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ciudad de Lucena win: 54% at kick-off, 7% now
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Don Benito win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Ciudad de Lucena win 7%)
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ciudad de Lucena win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ciudad de Lucena win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Don Benito win 3%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Ciudad de Lucena 3–2 Don Benito
- 46′SECOND HALF Ciudad de Lucena 3–2 Don Benito
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Ciudad de Lucena win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ciudad de Lucena win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Ciudad de Lucena win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Ciudad de Lucena win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito · N. Goma
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito · L. Pavon
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 29' Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito · Alberto Garcia
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 32' Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito · M. Molina
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 41' Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito · Alberto Garcia
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito
- FTFULL TIME Ciudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito
- FTCiudad de Lucena 4–2 Don Benito · Ciudad de Lucena win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.
The model’s prediction on this page stays free.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Ciudad de Lucena win54%Don Benito win21%Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30
Match timeline
All events
Ciudad de LucenaMINDon BenitoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Ciudad de Lucena
Don Benito
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Don Benito | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Ciudad de Lucena | 5 | +3 | 8 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Ciudad de Lucena a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 45% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Lucena win | 54% | 45% | +9 |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | −4 |
| Don Benito win | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 49% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| Ciudad de Lucena or draw | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Ciudad de Lucena clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| Don Benito clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.
Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
CIUDAD DE LUCENA
DON BENITO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Betis II | 6 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Recreativo Huelva | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Don Benito | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Tenerife II | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ciudad de Lucena | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Sevilla Atletico | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 |  Badajoz | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |  Linares Deportivo | 5 | −1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 |  Sanluqueño | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 |  Xerez | 6 | −1 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlético Central | 5 | −2 | 6 |
| 14 |  Marbella | 5 | −2 | 5 |
| 15 |  Puente Genil | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Las Palmas II | 5 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 5 | −7 | 3 |
| 18 |  Antoniano | 5 | −5 | 2 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.