Badajoz v Sanluqueño prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Badajoz 1–0 Sanluqueño BADAJOZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Badajoz win~~47%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.427

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.316

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Badajoz win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Badajoz 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Badajoz v Sanluqueño
6′Badajoz find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
6′We said Badajoz at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Badajoz 1–0 Sanluqueño
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Badajoz win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
32′We said Badajoz at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Badajoz 1–0 Sanluqueño
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Badajoz win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
46′SECOND HALF Badajoz 1–0 Sanluqueño
58′We said Badajoz at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
66′A goal for Sanluqueño on 66′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–57–18
66′We said Badajoz at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–57–18
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Badajoz 1–1 Sanluqueño
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Badajoz win: 47% at kick-off, 26% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Badajoz win 26%)
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Sanluqueño
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Badajoz win: 47% at kick-off, 83% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Badajoz win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
71′We said Badajoz at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Badajoz win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
79′We said Badajoz at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′We said Badajoz at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Badajoz win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Badajoz 1–0 Sanluqueño
FTBadajoz 1–0 Sanluqueño · Badajoz win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Badajoz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Badajoz 47%, draw 26%, Sanluqueño 28%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Badajoz v SanluqueñoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Badajoz win47%

Draw26%

Sanluqueño win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Badajoz

Sanluqueño

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Badajoz	6	+2	11
12	Sanluqueño	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · badajoz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market54%

Us47%

~~Market~~54%

We make Badajoz a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Badajoz v Sanluqueño~~1.48 – 1.07

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~5 v 12

~~The market · Badajoz win~~54% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Badajoz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Badajoz win	47%	54%	−7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Sanluqueño win	28%	19%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Badajoz or draw	72%	81%	−9
Badajoz clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sanluqueño clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.3 8.5 4.5 1 11.7 12.0 6.3 2.3 2 8.6 8.7 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Badajoz down, Sanluqueño across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Badajoz at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Sanluqueño away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Badajoz, 1.07 for Sanluqueño. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BAD 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

BADAJOZ

WWLDDW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

SANLUQUEÑO

DWDLDD2–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	7	+6	14
3	Mijas Las Lagunas	7	+4	12
4	Ciudad de Lucena	6	+5	11
5	Badajoz	6	+2	11
6	Linares Deportivo	7	0	11
7	Estepona	6	+1	10
8	Don Benito	6	+1	10
9	Tenerife II	7	0	10
10	Sevilla Atletico	7	0	9
11	Puente Genil	6	+1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	0	7
13	Xerez	6	−1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	−3	6
15	Marbella	6	−3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	−7	5
17	Antoniano	7	−6	3
18	Tamaraceite	6	−8	3