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Badajoz v Marbella
BadajozMarbellaSegunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Badajoz win at 48%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Badajoz 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–26
- 1′KICK-OFF Badajoz v Marbella
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Badajoz 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
- 45′HALF-TIME Badajoz 0–0 Marbella
- 46′SECOND HALF Badajoz 0–0 Marbella
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Badajoz 1–0 Marbella
- FTFULL TIME Badajoz 1–0 Marbella
- FTBadajoz 1–0 Marbella · Badajoz win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.
The model’s prediction on this page stays free.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Badajoz win48%Marbella win26%Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00
Match timeline
All events
BadajozMINMarbellaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Badajoz
Marbella
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Badajoz | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 14 | Marbella | 5 | −2 | 5 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Badajoz a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 47% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Badajoz win | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | −1 |
| Marbella win | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 28% | −6 |
| Badajoz or draw | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Badajoz clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Marbella clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.
Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
BADAJOZ
MARBELLA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Betis II | 6 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Recreativo Huelva | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |  Don Benito | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Tenerife II | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ciudad de Lucena | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Sevilla Atletico | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Badajoz | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 8 |  Estepona | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |  Linares Deportivo | 5 | −1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Mijas Las Lagunas | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 |  Sanluqueño | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 |  Xerez | 6 | −1 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlético Central | 5 | −2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 5 | −2 | 5 |
| 15 |  Puente Genil | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Las Palmas II | 5 | −7 | 4 |
| 17 |  Tamaraceite | 5 | −7 | 3 |
| 18 |  Antoniano | 5 | −5 | 2 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.