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Antoniano v Sevilla Atletico

Antoniano

3–3Full time

Sevilla Atletico

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Antoniano 3–3 Sevilla Atletico ANTONIANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Antoniano win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.772

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Antoniano win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Antoniano was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Antoniano v Sevilla Atletico
9′Antoniano score on 9′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–13
9′We published Antoniano at 38%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–13
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Antoniano 1–0 Sevilla Atletico
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Antoniano win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Antoniano win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
29′We published Antoniano at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Antoniano 1–0 Sevilla Atletico
46′SECOND HALF Antoniano 1–0 Sevilla Atletico
49′Sevilla Atletico find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–46–26
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Antoniano 1–1 Sevilla Atletico
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Antoniano win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Antoniano win 28%)
51′Sevilla Atletico find the net on 51′. 1–1 · 28–47–25
52′We said Antoniano at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–21–73
52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–21–73
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Antoniano 1–2 Sevilla Atletico
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Antoniano win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Sevilla Atletico win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
55′Sevilla Atletico score on 54′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–95
55′We said Antoniano at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
55′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–95
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Antoniano 1–3 Sevilla Atletico
63′Antoniano find the net on 63′. 2–3. 2–3 · 4–19–77
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–19–77
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Antoniano 2–3 Sevilla Atletico
64′A goal for Antoniano on 64′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 22–58–20
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Antoniano 3–3 Sevilla Atletico
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Antoniano win: 38% at kick-off, 22% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Sevilla Atletico win 20%)
65′We said Antoniano at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 3–3 · 21–59–20
65′6 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 21–59–20
69′We said Antoniano at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 3–3 · 19–63–18
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Antoniano win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
76′We said Antoniano at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 3–3 · 14–72–13
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Antoniano win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Antoniano 3–3 Sevilla Atletico
FTAntoniano 3–3 Sevilla Atletico · Antoniano win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Antoniano just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Antoniano 38%, draw 28%, Sevilla Atletico 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Antoniano v Sevilla AtleticoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Antoniano win38%

Draw28%

Sevilla Atletico win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Antoniano

Sevilla Atletico

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	0	8
18	Antoniano	6	−6	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · antoniano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Antoniano a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Antoniano v Sevilla Atletico~~1.17 – 1.10

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 8~~18 v 10

~~The market · Antoniano win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Antoniano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antoniano win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Sevilla Atletico win	34%	29%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Antoniano or draw	66%	71%	−5
Antoniano clean sheet	34%	–	–
Sevilla Atletico clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.6 11.4 6.2 2.4 1 12.2 12.9 7.0 2.6 2 7.1 7.6 4.1 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antoniano down, Sevilla Atletico across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Antoniano at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sevilla Atletico away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Antoniano, 1.10 for Sevilla Atletico. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SEV 3–0 ANT · ANT 2–0 SEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

ANTONIANO

LDDLLL1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

SEVILLA ATLETICO

WWDLDL1–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Betis II	6	+8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	+6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	+5	11
4	Badajoz	6	+2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	+2	10
6	Estepona	6	+1	10
7	Don Benito	6	+1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	+2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	+1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	0	7
13	Xerez	6	−1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	−3	6
15	Marbella	6	−3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	−7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	−8	3
18	Antoniano	6	−6	2