Yeclano v Poblense prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Yeclano 2–2 Poblense YECLANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yeclano win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.727

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yeclano win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yeclano was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Yeclano v Poblense
9′A goal for Yeclano on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–10
9′We published Yeclano at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–10
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Yeclano 1–0 Poblense
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Yeclano win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
37′We published Yeclano at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′F. Harta scores for Yeclano on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′HALF-TIME Yeclano 1–0 Poblense
46′SECOND HALF Yeclano 1–0 Poblense
49′Poblense score on 49′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–49–23
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Yeclano 1–1 Poblense
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Yeclano win: 40% at kick-off, 29% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Yeclano win 29%)
50′We said Yeclano at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–49–22
56′Poblense find the net on 55′. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Yeclano 1–2 Poblense
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Yeclano win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Poblense win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
57′We said Yeclano at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–21–75
57′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–21–75
59′We said Yeclano at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Yeclano win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
92′A goal for Yeclano on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–2
92′4 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–96–2
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Yeclano 2–2 Poblense
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Poblense win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Yeclano 2–2 Poblense
FTYeclano 2–2 Poblense · Yeclano win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yeclano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yeclano 40%, draw 31%, Poblense 30%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Yeclano v PoblenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yeclano win40%

Draw31%

Poblense win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

VenueCampo de la Constitucion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yeclano

Poblense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Yeclano	6	+1	9
15	Poblense	6	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yeclano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make Yeclano a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yeclano v Poblense~~1.10 – 0.91

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~8 v 15

~~The market · Yeclano win~~49% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yeclano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yeclano win	40%	49%	−9
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Poblense win	30%	21%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Both teams to score	39%	42%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	19%	−4
Yeclano or draw	70%	79%	−9
Yeclano clean sheet	41%	–	–
Poblense clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 13.7 12.2 5.6 1 14.7 13.2 6.0 2 8.1 7.2 3.3 3 3.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yeclano down, Poblense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Yeclano at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Poblense away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Yeclano, 0.91 for Poblense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

YECLANO

WDLWDD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

POBLENSE

LLLWLW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	+1	9
9	Intercity	6	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	+1	8
11	Elche II	6	−2	7
12	Orihuela	6	−7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	−2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	−3	6
15	Poblense	6	−3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4