Ucam Murcia v Cieza prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ucam MurciaDrawCieza

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ucam Murcia 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ucam Murcia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ucam Murcia 47%, draw 26%, Cieza 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ucam Murcia v CiezaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ucam Murcia win47%

Draw26%

Cieza win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

VenueEstadio de La Condomina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ucam Murcia

Cieza

6Days since last match14

Last match: 19 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucam murcia winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

47% The market52%

Us47%

~~Market~~52%

We make Ucam Murcia a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ucam Murcia v Cieza~~1.49 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~1 v 6

~~The market · Ucam Murcia win~~52% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ucam Murcia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ucam Murcia win	47%	52%	−5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Cieza win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Ucam Murcia or draw	73%	78%	−5
Ucam Murcia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Cieza clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.2 8.3 4.3 1 11.8 12.1 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 9.0 4.7 3 4.4 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ucam Murcia down, Cieza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Ucam Murcia at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Cieza away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Ucam Murcia, 1.04 for Cieza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

UCAM MURCIA

WWLWWW1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

CIEZA

DWLDWW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellonense	7	+6	15
3	Deportiva Minera	7	+4	14
4	Castellón II	6	+6	12
5	La Nucía	6	+4	12
6	Cieza	6	+6	11
7	Orihuela	8	−5	11
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Yeclano	8	−1	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	7	−2	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Valencia II	7	−5	5
17	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4