Ucam Murcia v Alcoyano prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Ucam Murcia 2–0 Alcoyano UCAM MURCIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ucam Murcia win~~42%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.424

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ucam Murcia win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ucam Murcia 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
1′KICK-OFF Ucam Murcia v Alcoyano
2′Little has changed for our model: Ucam Murcia 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
45′HALF-TIME Ucam Murcia 0–0 Alcoyano
46′SECOND HALF Ucam Murcia 0–0 Alcoyano
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ucam Murcia 1–0 Alcoyano
90′⚽ GOAL · 97' Ucam Murcia 2–0 Alcoyano
FTFULL TIME Ucam Murcia 2–0 Alcoyano
FTUcam Murcia 2–0 Alcoyano · Ucam Murcia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ucam Murcia win42%

Draw30%

Alcoyano win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueEstadio de La Condomina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ucam Murcia

Alcoyano

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucam murcia winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

42% The market47%

Us42%

~~Market~~47%

We make Ucam Murcia a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ucam murcia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ucam Murcia win	42%	47%	−4
Draw	30%	30%	0
Alcoyano win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	40%	45%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Ucam Murcia or draw	72%	76%	−4
Ucam Murcia clean sheet	42%	–	–
Alcoyano clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 13.0 11.3 5.0 1 14.9 13.0 5.8 2 8.7 7.6 3.4 3 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ucam Murcia down, Alcoyano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ucam Murcia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Alcoyano away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Ucam Murcia, 0.89 for Alcoyano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

UCAM MURCIA

LWWLW1–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 5–1

ALCOYANO

DDLWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1