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Real Murcia II v Yeclano

Real Murcia II

1–1Full time

Yeclano

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

Real Murcia II 1–1 Yeclano REAL MURCIA II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Real Murcia II win~~37%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.768

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Murcia II win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Murcia II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–35
6′A red card for Real Murcia II on 3′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 36–30–34
11′Much as we predicted: Real Murcia II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–34
25′Yeclano find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
30′A red card for Real Murcia II on 3′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 10–22–67
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
37′We said Real Murcia II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 10% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
40′Yeclano find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Real Murcia II 0–1 Yeclano
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Real Murcia II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Yeclano win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Real Murcia II win 9%)
46′SECOND HALF Real Murcia II 0–1 Yeclano
67′🟥 RED CARD · 3' M. Ataz · Real Murcia II
67′⚽ GOAL · 22' Real Murcia II 0–1 Yeclano · D. Herrera
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Real Murcia II 1–1 Yeclano
FTFULL TIME Real Murcia II 1–1 Yeclano
FTReal Murcia II 1–1 Yeclano · Real Murcia II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Murcia II win37%

Draw28%

Yeclano win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Murcia II

Yeclano

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real murcia ii winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

37% The market24%

Us37%

~~Market~~24%

We make Real Murcia II a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real murcia ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 27% to 24% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Murcia II win	37%	24%	+12
Draw	28%	30%	−1
Yeclano win	35%	46%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Real Murcia II or draw	65%	54%	+11
Real Murcia II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Yeclano clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.6 11.6 6.4 2.4 1 11.9 13.0 7.2 2.7 2 6.9 7.5 4.2 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Murcia II down, Yeclano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Real Murcia II at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Yeclano away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Real Murcia II, 1.11 for Yeclano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

REAL MURCIA II

LLLWL1–2 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

YECLANO

WDLWD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1