Real Murcia II v Lorca Deportiva prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real Murcia IIDrawLorca Deportiva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Murcia II 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Real Murcia II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Murcia II 37%, draw 28%, Lorca Deportiva 35%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Real Murcia II v Lorca DeportivaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Murcia II win37%

Draw28%

Lorca Deportiva win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Murcia II

Lorca Deportiva

14Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real murcia ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market29%

Us37%

~~Market~~29%

We make Real Murcia II a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Murcia II v Lorca Deportiva~~1.20 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~18 v 10

~~The market · Real Murcia II win~~29% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Murcia II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Murcia II win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Lorca Deportiva win	35%	42%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Real Murcia II or draw	65%	58%	+7
Real Murcia II clean sheet	32%	–	–
Lorca Deportiva clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.8 11.0 6.4 2.5 1 11.3 12.9 7.5 2.9 2 6.8 7.7 4.4 3 2.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Murcia II down, Lorca Deportiva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,591 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Murcia II at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Lorca Deportiva away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Real Murcia II, 1.16 for Lorca Deportiva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOR 2–1 REA · REA 1–2 LOR · REA 1–2 LOR · LOR 0–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

REAL MURCIA II

LLLWLD1–2 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

LORCA DEPORTIVA

LDWLWD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4