Poblense v Peña Deportiva prediction · Segunda División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PoblenseDrawPeña Deportiva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Poblense 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Poblense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Poblense 50%, draw 27%, Peña Deportiva 23%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Poblense v Peña DeportivaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Poblense win50%

Draw27%

Peña Deportiva win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Poblense

Peña Deportiva

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 19 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · poblense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market46%

Us50%

~~Market~~46%

We make Poblense a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Poblense v Peña Deportiva~~1.45 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~14 v 16

~~The market · Poblense win~~46% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Poblense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Poblense win	50%	46%	+4
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Peña Deportiva win	23%	25%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Poblense or draw	77%	75%	+2
Poblense clean sheet	42%	–	–
Peña Deportiva clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 9.9 8.6 3.8 1 14.1 12.2 5.4 2 10.1 8.8 3.9 3 5.0 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Poblense down, Peña Deportiva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,588 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Poblense at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Peña Deportiva away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Poblense, 0.88 for Peña Deportiva. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept

POBLENSE

LLWLWD1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

PEÑA DEPORTIVA

DLLLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4