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Poblense v Castellón II

Poblense

2–1Full time

Castellón II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Poblense 2–1 Castellón II POBLENSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Poblense win~~50%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.530

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Poblense win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Poblense 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Poblense v Castellón II
8′Little has changed for our model: Poblense 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Poblense 1–0 Castellón II
14′12′ and it is 1–0: Poblense have scored. 1–0 · 74–16–10
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
19′12′ and it is 1–0: Poblense have scored. 1–0 · 74–17–9
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
24′We said Poblense at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
28′⚽ GOAL · 12' Poblense 1–0 Castellón II
30′Castellón II are down to ten from 30′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′🟥 RED CARD · 30' Castellón II
39′Castellón II are down to ten from 32′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′Castellón II find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–36–24
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Poblense 1–1 Castellón II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Poblense 1–1 Castellón II
46′SECOND HALF Poblense 1–1 Castellón II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Poblense win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Poblense 2–1 Castellón II
FTFULL TIME Poblense 2–1 Castellón II
FTPoblense 2–1 Castellón II · Poblense win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Poblense win50%

Draw23%

Castellón II win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Poblense

Castellón II

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
16	Poblense	5	−4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · poblense winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

50% The market41%

Us50%

~~Market~~41%

We make Poblense a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · poblense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Poblense win	50%	41%	+10
Draw	23%	29%	−6
Castellón II win	27%	31%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	49%	+9
Both teams to score	58%	54%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	72%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	36%	29%	+7
Poblense or draw	73%	69%	+4
Poblense clean sheet	29%	–	–
Castellón II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.1 6.1 3.8 1 8.8 10.6 6.5 2.7 2 7.8 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 4.6 5.6 3.4 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Poblense down, Castellón II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Poblense at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Castellón II away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Poblense, 1.23 for Castellón II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAS 2–0 POB · POB 3–2 CAS

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

POBLENSE

LLLLWL1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

CASTELLÓN II

WLWWWW4–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1