Peña Deportiva v Ucam Murcia prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:27

Peña Deportiva 0–1 Ucam Murcia UCAM MURCIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ucam Murcia win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.439

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ucam Murcia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Peña Deportiva 35%, draw 26%, Ucam Murcia 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Peña Deportiva v Ucam MurciaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Peña Deportiva win35%

Draw26%

Ucam Murcia win39%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:45

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Peña Deportiva

Ucam Murcia

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucam murcia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Ucam Murcia a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Peña Deportiva v Ucam Murcia~~1.29 – 1.38

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~16 v 1

~~The market · Ucam Murcia win~~46% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ucam Murcia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Peña Deportiva win	35%	25%	+10
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Ucam Murcia win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	45%	+5
Both teams to score	54%	50%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	26%	+2
Peña Deportiva or draw	61%	54%	+7
Peña Deportiva clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ucam Murcia clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 9.6 6.6 3.1 1 9.0 12.1 8.3 3.9 2 5.8 7.7 5.3 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Peña Deportiva down, Ucam Murcia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Peña Deportiva at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ucam Murcia away: 3.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Peña Deportiva, 1.38 for Ucam Murcia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PEN 0–1 UCA · UCA 0–1 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

PEÑA DEPORTIVA

LDLLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 3–1

UCAM MURCIA

LWWLWW1–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4