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Peña Deportiva v Orihuela

Peña Deportiva

3–1Full time

Orihuela

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Peña Deportiva 3–1 Orihuela PEÑA DEPORTIVA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Peña Deportiva win~~46%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.431

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Peña Deportiva win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Peña Deportiva was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
15′Much as we predicted: Peña Deportiva was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
33′A goal for Peña Deportiva on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–7
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
40′A. Montori scores for Peña Deportiva on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–6
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Peña Deportiva win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Peña Deportiva 1–1 Orihuela
45′HALF-TIME Peña Deportiva 1–1 Orihuela
45′🟥 RED CARD · 33' Y. Ley · Peña Deportiva
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Peña Deportiva 1–1 Orihuela · J. Solsona
45′⚽ GOAL · 30' Peña Deportiva 1–1 Orihuela · A. Montori
45′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Y. Ley · Peña Deportiva
46′SECOND HALF Peña Deportiva 1–1 Orihuela
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Peña Deportiva 2–1 Orihuela
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Peña Deportiva 3–1 Orihuela
FTFULL TIME Peña Deportiva 3–1 Orihuela
FTPeña Deportiva 3–1 Orihuela · Peña Deportiva win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Peña Deportiva win46%

Draw26%

Orihuela win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Peña Deportiva

Orihuela

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · peña deportiva winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

46% The market35%

Us46%

~~Market~~35%

We make Peña Deportiva a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · peña deportiva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Peña Deportiva win	46%	35%	+12
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Orihuela win	28%	37%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
Peña Deportiva or draw	72%	63%	+9
Peña Deportiva clean sheet	33%	–	–
Orihuela clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 8.2 4.5 1 11.1 12.0 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 9.0 4.9 3 4.2 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Peña Deportiva down, Orihuela across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,576 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Peña Deportiva at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Orihuela away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Peña Deportiva, 1.11 for Orihuela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

PEÑA DEPORTIVA

DLDLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3

ORIHUELA

WWDLL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Castellón II	5	+7	12
2	La Nucía	5	+6	12
3	Castellonense	5	+5	12
4	Alcoyano	5	+2	10
5	Ucam Murcia	5	+6	9
6	Intercity	5	+2	9
7	Cieza	5	+4	8
8	Deportiva Minera	5	+1	8
9	Yeclano	5	+1	8
10	Elche II	6	−2	7
11	Orihuela	5	−5	7
12	Lorca Deportiva	5	−1	5
13	Mallorca II	5	−2	5
14	Atlético Baleares	5	−3	5
15	Valencia II	6	−5	4
16	Poblense	5	−4	3
17	Real Murcia II	5	−7	3
18	Peña Deportiva	5	−5	1