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Orihuela v Valencia II

Orihuela

1–1Full time

Valencia II

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Orihuela 1–1 Valencia II ORIHUELA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Orihuela win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.794

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orihuela win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Orihuela was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Orihuela v Valencia II
42′A goal for Valencia II on 42′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
42′We said Orihuela at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Orihuela 0–1 Valencia II
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Orihuela win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Valencia II win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Orihuela win 34%)
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–67
43′R. Gamon scores for Valencia II on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–67
45′HALF-TIME Orihuela 0–1 Valencia II
46′SECOND HALF Orihuela 0–1 Valencia II
47′We said Orihuela at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Orihuela win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
53′Orihuela score on 52′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–43–28
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Orihuela 1–1 Valencia II
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Orihuela win: 39% at kick-off, 30% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Valencia II win 70%)
59′We said Orihuela at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–47–25
65′We said Orihuela at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
73′We said Orihuela at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Orihuela win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Orihuela win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
91′We said Orihuela at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–4
FTFULL TIME Orihuela 1–1 Valencia II
FTOrihuela 1–1 Valencia II · Orihuela win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Orihuela just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Orihuela 39%, draw 25%, Valencia II 36%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Orihuela v Valencia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Orihuela win39%

Draw25%

Valencia II win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orihuela

Valencia II

6Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orihuela winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Orihuela a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orihuela v Valencia II~~1.46 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 4~~9 v 17

~~The market · Orihuela win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orihuela win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orihuela win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Valencia II win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Orihuela or draw	64%	67%	−3
Orihuela clean sheet	26%	–	–
Valencia II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 8.1 5.6 2.6 1 8.6 11.6 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.4 5.8 2.7 3 3.1 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orihuela down, Valencia II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,588 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 4.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orihuela at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 3). Valencia II away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Orihuela, 1.38 for Valencia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~4.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VAL 5–2 ORI · ORI 1–3 VAL · VAL 2–2 ORI · ORI 2–1 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

ORIHUELA

WDLLLW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 2–0

VALENCIA II

DLLLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	7	+9	15
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Yeclano	7	+1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	−5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	+1	9
11	Intercity	6	0	9
12	Elche II	6	−2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	−3	7
14	Poblense	7	−3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	−4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	−4	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4