Mallorca II v Orihuela prediction · Segunda División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Mallorca II 0–2 Orihuela MALLORCA II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mallorca II win~~37%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.635

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.762

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mallorca II win at 37%.
1′Orihuela score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
1′KICK-OFF Mallorca II v Orihuela
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Mallorca II 0–1 Orihuela
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Mallorca II win: 37% at kick-off, 16% now
1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Orihuela win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Mallorca II win 16%)
2′We said Mallorca II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
12′We said Mallorca II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
37′Orihuela find the net on 36′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–90
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Mallorca II 0–2 Orihuela
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Mallorca II win: 37% at kick-off, 2% now
38′We said Mallorca II at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
45′HALF-TIME Mallorca II 0–2 Orihuela
46′SECOND HALF Mallorca II 0–2 Orihuela
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Orihuela
80′A red card for Orihuela on 79′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Mallorca II 0–2 Orihuela
FTMallorca II 0–2 Orihuela · Mallorca II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mallorca II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mallorca II 37%, draw 27%, Orihuela 35%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Mallorca II v OrihuelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mallorca II win37%

Draw27%

Orihuela win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mallorca II

Orihuela

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Orihuela	6	−7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mallorca ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market43%

Us37%

~~Market~~43%

We make Mallorca II a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mallorca II v Orihuela~~1.22 – 1.18

~~Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~13 v 12

~~The market · Mallorca II win~~43% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mallorca II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mallorca II win	37%	43%	−6
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Orihuela win	35%	29%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Mallorca II or draw	65%	71%	−6
Mallorca II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Orihuela clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.4 10.7 6.4 2.6 1 11.0 12.7 7.4 3.0 2 6.8 7.8 4.5 3 2.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mallorca II down, Orihuela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Mallorca II at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Orihuela away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Mallorca II, 1.18 for Orihuela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

MALLORCA II

DDWLLD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

ORIHUELA

WWDLLL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ucam Murcia	6	+8	12
2	Castellón II	6	+6	12
3	Castellonense	6	+4	12
4	La Nucía	6	+4	12
5	Cieza	6	+6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	+2	11
7	Alcoyano	6	0	10
8	Yeclano	6	+1	9
9	Intercity	6	0	9
10	Lorca Deportiva	6	+1	8
11	Elche II	6	−2	7
12	Orihuela	6	−7	7
13	Mallorca II	6	−2	6
14	Atlético Baleares	6	−3	6
15	Poblense	6	−3	6
16	Peña Deportiva	6	−3	4
17	Valencia II	6	−5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	−7	4